00:55.8
I mean, we're just going to call you Admiral kasi emeritus ka na.
00:58.6
The same way na when we talk to Justice Carpio, we call him Justice.
01:02.5
But thank you so much again.
01:03.7
So you're not in active service just to make it clear to people.
01:06.3
Kasi baka mamaya, di ba?
01:09.1
So I separately interviewed si Commodore Trinidad, right, about what's happening in the Philippine Navy in terms of active service personnel.
01:16.6
Pero I want to talk to you, Admiral Ong, because you're one of the leading strategists in the Philippines when it comes to looking at the big defense picture,
01:24.3
And also operational issues.
01:26.3
Maraming tiyang pag-usapan.
01:27.2
Bago natin puntahan na itong mga marites diplomacy ng China, whether ito yung gentleman's agreement, new model agreement, special temporary arrangements.
01:39.2
I know that's a little bit speculative.
01:40.5
You may feel uncomfortable, just like how Jay Batumbacal was feeling uncomfortable to discuss ICC.
01:45.9
Let's start with things that are, I think, more spicy and interesting and perhaps less speculative.
01:51.0
Let's talk about squad.
01:52.8
What is your sense about this new...
01:55.1
Namely, Philippines, Australia, US, and Japan.
01:59.7
Obviously, when it comes to quadrilaterals, ang pinakasikat dyan is the quad of India, Australia, Japan, and the United States.
02:07.3
And then, of course, other people are talking about also other squads or other quads.
02:11.0
Korea naman dyan.
02:12.6
Now, this squad thing is gaining a lot of media traction.
02:15.2
I think I already had multiple pieces on this.
02:18.3
And medyo I made some, you know, serve the tea to our Indian friends because...
02:23.2
Ang basa ko dito is, you know, I talked to...
02:26.4
I mean, I raised a question during the Mini-Secret Conference a few days before Russia invaded Ukraine dun sa quad panel.
02:33.8
And, you know, Jai Shankar, their foreign minister, was there.
02:37.3
And I asked them, is quad the Asian NATO?
02:41.1
Of course, I knew they were going to reject it.
02:42.6
But he went on, like, nag-rant siya and all.
02:45.3
That's a lazy analogy.
02:46.7
Nag-gayang-gayang-gayang siya.
02:48.1
And essentially, he made it clear that India is their, you know, it's an alliance of convenience.
02:52.2
They have shared interests.
02:53.0
So, they're going to be there.
02:54.2
But India is not a U.S. ally.
02:56.5
India has no treaty alliance with any other power.
02:58.7
It wants to remain independent.
03:00.4
And, of course, a few days later, when Russia invaded Ukraine, India never condemned it.
03:06.3
India did not stand with Ukraine.
03:07.9
India kept on going with Russia.
03:10.0
S-400 missile defense systems.
03:11.9
They doubled down on energy imports.
03:13.7
At some point, India was the biggest importer of oil from Russia.
03:18.3
So, there has been a lot of tensions between India and the West.
03:21.3
Not to mention NATO.
03:22.0
You know, allegations.
03:23.0
Overseas assassination plots against Indian dissidents.
03:26.4
So, many points of tension.
03:28.2
And then comes the Philippines.
03:30.1
Wala na si Digong.
03:34.1
Next thing you know, nakat second squad meeting na tayo.
03:37.0
One was last year during the Shangela Dialogue in Singapore.
03:39.9
And then now you have in Hawaii this latest meeting.
03:42.6
First of all, Admiral Ong, is the squad, is it an idea whose time has arrived?
03:49.6
And what is your expectation management stance on this issue?
03:53.0
Okay, Richard. Thank you for that question.
03:56.0
Siguro, I will answer you in a long-winded way, indirect.
04:01.3
Kasi we need to, kung bagay sa mga abogado, according to yung, say, kay Jay,
04:06.3
we have to lay the predicate muna before we go to the squad.
04:10.3
Which I think ikaw yung nag-coin ng term na yun eh.
04:14.3
So, parang yun ngayon yung hot potato ng term.
04:20.3
Now, yung foundation niyan would be yung bilateral.
04:23.0
Yung bilateral engagements natin with the U.S., with Australia, tsaka with Japan.
04:30.0
I will look at yung, siguro, if you look at yung readouts, yung result ng ating bilateral
04:35.0
security dialogue between the Philippines and United States.
04:39.0
Then yung 2 plus 2 with the Philippines and Japan.
04:43.0
Very, ano na yun eh, very solid na yung foundation lang.
04:46.0
Then we move towards yung trilateral, yung U.S., Japan, tsaka Philippines.
04:53.0
Medyo maganda rin yung grounding doon.
04:56.0
It started off within the militaries.
04:59.0
AFP into PACOM tsaka yung Joint Self-Defense Force ng Japan.
05:04.0
Then naging, I think last year, it was among the national security advisors.
05:09.0
Then of course, yung pinakulmination niya would be yung trilateral summit in Washington, D.C.
05:14.0
So yun yung grounding muna noon.
05:18.0
Then yung sa Hawaii na meeting.
05:22.0
Na meeting was yung squad na.
05:26.0
Kumasok na si Australia doon sa discussion.
05:29.0
But if we deconstruct all those bilaterals and trilaterals, meron na siyang nahubog na yung laman noon.
05:40.0
Kasi cannot be just parang photo op lang yung apat na defense ministers na picture taking.
05:46.0
May groundwork na, may groundwork.
05:48.0
Pero na, may solid na yun.
05:50.0
May commitments na yung mga powers na yun, major and middle powers, with respect to yung engagement nila sa atin sa Pilipinas.
06:00.0
So ang kagandahan dito, kung titignan mo, this is supposed to be a security engagement.
06:07.0
But kung titignan mo yung laman, yung substance ng commitments, 50 percent is security and 50 percent is actually economic.
06:17.0
Or a security dialogue.
06:20.0
And that is very surprising.
06:21.0
That means there is a recognition that it cannot be, yung engagement natin, cannot be all security.
06:29.0
Kailangan meron palaman dyan na economic engagement.
06:33.0
Comprehensive, strategic.
06:36.0
So if I am to look at yung ano yung pinaka-major takeaway natin sa trilateral summit sa Washington, D.C., that would be yung Luzon Economic Corridor.
06:48.0
That would be a major thing.
06:50.0
Kaya nakataki na rin yung civil nuclear energy engagement.
06:54.0
Yung chips, yung sa semiconductor industry, those are add-ons na actually are more important than the security one.
07:05.0
Kasi yung security, nai-anol natin niya, nakikamada na natin niya, nailatag na natin niya, very robust niya.
07:12.0
So yung squad, I think is a new development.
07:17.0
But nakita ko dito, among these four, I mean among the three, medyo yung commitment between the Philippines and Australia, siguro yun yung medyo titignan natin.
07:31.0
Maganda yung relationship natin with Australia in terms of bilateral.
07:38.0
But in the context of yung squad, nung tinitignan ko yung discussion, it was more of ang lumalabas.
07:45.0
It was a statement of support and commitment to assist the Philippines with respect to yung South China Sea problem natin, yung concerns natin.
07:56.0
So hindi siya kasing substantive yung trilateral with the US and Japan.
08:03.0
Yung JAFOS, what I call JAFOS.
08:05.0
You also coined the JAFOS.
08:08.0
And yung bilaterals natin, Philippine-US and Philippine-Japan.
08:14.0
I do agree with you, Admiral, on that point in terms of hindi ito photo op lang, hindi lang for the gram to.
08:21.0
A lot of groundwork was there.
08:23.0
I mean, ang basa ko rin dito, Admiral, is that it's also kind of a catch-up time, di ba?
08:29.0
Kasi ang basa ko dito, kung hindi siguro si Digong yung naging presidente natin.
08:33.0
Let's say any one other, any other naging kandidato nung 2016, any other normal person naging presidente.
08:40.0
I think something like squad would have had happened way earlier, no?
08:44.0
Whether it's under Trump or Biden.
08:47.0
Well, actually, yung trilateral was already pinag-uusapan na within the militaries, within the air forces.
08:56.0
Even yung time ni former President Duterte pa.
08:59.0
But it was something that was under the radar.
09:02.0
Alam mo naman dahil iba yung context na, iba yung focus.
09:06.0
So it was something under the radar and there was a quiet conversation on this.
09:11.0
Nothing substantive.
09:12.0
Yung mga basic principles.
09:18.0
Pakiramdaman lang.
09:20.0
Pakiramdaman lang.
09:23.0
Admiral, going back to this.
09:25.0
Okay, let's go brass tacks.
09:28.0
What are we realistically looking at here?
09:31.0
Okay, so joint patrols, more joint patrols, quadrilateral patrols in South China Sea, maybe?
09:37.0
I mean, more intelligence sharing.
09:39.0
But in terms of capacity building.
09:41.0
I mean, anong pwedeng concretely na gagawin itong tatlong bansa na yan to make the squad relevant in the context of the disputes we'll discuss later on?
09:50.0
Especially itong SCAR, Barshall, Ayungin.
09:52.0
But big picture muna.
09:53.0
I mean, what are the things that we can expect from the squad?
09:55.0
Kasi, let's be honest, Philippines is the weakling, right?
09:58.0
Sobrang weakestling tayo. Medyo malayo yung gap eh.
10:01.0
I mean, US obviously superpower.
10:03.0
But Australia and Japan are full-fledged middle power.
10:05.0
The Philippines is still kind of a newish middle power, if I can put it charitably.
10:10.0
What are the things that we can get out of this?
10:13.0
Because if I remember, Lloyd Austin, the US Defense Secretary, said deterrence is something important that they discussed.
10:20.0
So in terms of deterrence, anong pwedeng gawin ng tatlong na yan to deter China in terms of its aggression, aggressiveness sa West Philippine Sea?
10:27.0
Okay, siguro low-hanging fruit, no?
10:30.0
Speaking from a former Navy person.
10:32.0
Shipbuilding capabilities.
10:36.0
Shipbuilding capacity.
10:38.0
That is something that we need to work on.
10:40.0
And yung foundation sa malalang shipbuilding capability, meron na tayo before.
10:44.0
But we need the infusion of new technology, of course, capital investment.
10:49.0
Yung problema natin sa West Philippine Sea ngayon is capacity issue eh.
10:55.0
Yung capacity is driven by we lack bottoms or we lack yung chips to match yung presence, yung combined presence ng Navy, Coast Guard, sa Commission ng China eh.
11:08.0
So if we have that, we can now work on developing yung domestic shipbuilding capability natin.
11:15.0
We can produce sufficient bottoms. At least, hindi naman ito surpassed but at least yung merong parity. Localized parity yung natin.
11:28.0
Pag nagkatunggali tayo sa datang.
11:31.0
Now in terms of...
11:34.0
Yeah, please, please.
11:37.0
I was wondering, in terms of ISR, in terms of some missile systems, ano yung mga pinakamabilis na pwede nila ibigay sa Pilipinas just to a little bit enhance our deterrence capability?
11:49.0
Is there something special that Japan or Australia can offer us aside from the United States?
11:56.0
Sa Japan, I'm not sure. Kasi ang tinitingnan natin are US systems eh. Kasi ang issue dito, supply chain.
12:05.0
You might get, you might, let's say, acquire the best rifle in the market. Okay?
12:13.0
But if yung binili mo, yung spare parts niya hindi available locally, then you have to buy it from abroad. So that's a supply chain issue.
12:24.0
Kala ko buy it from Banaue.
12:28.0
Kasi yung supply, more or less, naka-built in na yung, through yung foreign military funding.
12:34.0
So meron ng pipeline yun for logistics. So kung titingin tayo sa ibang systems, medyo magkakaproblema tayo sa supply chain.
12:46.0
Now, Admiral, I mean, speaking of capability building, I mean, the reason why I'm asking about this is because, again, I'm just playing the devil's advocate here in the sense that baka naman itong squad, it's true na hindi siya for the gram or for photo op lang,
13:02.0
pero baka naman it just raises the diplomatic tensions without delivering the goods, right?
13:08.0
Baka ang mangyari lang dito, it gives China more excuse to say, oh, tignan nyo, ini-encircle kami, tignan nyo, Amerika, proxy war, I mean, proxy, Pilipinas, tumutulong sa proxy war.
13:17.0
Eto, diba, eto yung propaganda ng mga makapili, diba? Alam naman natin yung kalakaran.
13:20.0
Na baka you're just giving propaganda ammunition and more pretext to China to be aggressive without doing what is necessary to actually help us on the ground.
13:28.0
Yun yung concern ko dito. I'm not saying that's gonna happen.
13:30.0
But I'm saying, I'm not saying that's gonna happen. But I'm saying, I'm not saying that's gonna happen. But I'm saying, I'm not saying that's gonna happen.
13:31.0
But I'm saying, I'm not saying that's gonna happen. But I'm saying, I'm not saying that's gonna happen.
13:32.0
You have to make sure that you're not creating noise and then hindi mo mapanindigan yan.
13:38.0
Okay. Number one, we should not believe in our own propaganda.
13:42.0
So, let's do our homework. When we engage them and we have this relationship, meron ka road map. Ano yung ano mo, saan papunta yung usapan na ito, saan papunta yung engagement na ito.
13:56.0
Hindi yan pwede yung parang verbal na, then walang direksyon. So, if you program it or plan it right, I think it will work out.
14:08.0
But if yung short-sighted ka, mahihirapan talaga yan. Yung mangyayari, yung sinasabi mo, that would be sinaryo na patahakin.
14:20.0
And again, kung titignan natin yung going by yung readouts of yung commitments.
14:26.0
Hindi, several dialogues na nakita natin over the past year. Very solid naman yung usapan doon.
14:34.0
Ang ano doon is yung follow-through. Okay. Naisulat na, then meron din tayo responsibility, tayo yung Pilipinas, to also capacitate ourselves para i-absorb lahat yung commitments na ngayon.
14:48.0
Otherwise, kahit ibuhos sa'yo yung support ngayon, tapos hindi ka prepared to absorb that type of support.
14:56.0
Magdi-dissipate, boom.
14:58.0
What are the areas, and this is where, again, amateur stock, geopolitics, expert stock to logistics.
15:06.0
Are there something specific that you have in mind in terms of certain supply chains, in terms of defense acquisitions from the other Quad countries?
15:15.0
Okay. Let's say, for example, pabalik tayo sa barco.
15:19.0
Right. Let's talk warships.
15:21.0
Okay. Yung tinransfer sa ating Hamilton-class.
15:25.0
Yung Qatar from the U.S. Coast Guard.
15:28.0
You have to set up yung ecosystem to support yung logistics, saka yung maintenance ecosystem to support that.
15:34.0
Okay. So we prepared, the Navy prepared itself, pati yung tao that will do the maintenance and yung financial requirements para i-support yung activity na yun.
15:50.0
Para pagka merong maintenance cycle, yung papasok sa maintenance cycle, kaya na-perform dito ng Navy, ng organization.
16:01.0
Kung wala yun, that ship will deteriorate kasi wala kang setup na system to sustain it.
16:08.0
Remember, parang ang bumili ng kotse, may tech manual yan. Tapos tatawagan ka ng dealer every six months reminding you.
16:19.0
Reminding you na mayroon kang progressive maintenance to follow.
16:22.0
Now kung wala yung system na yun, even if yung kotse mo bago, in one year's time, that will deteriorate if you didn't follow the maintenance cycle.
16:32.0
So that ecosystem is also transferable kung kukontekstualize mo sa isang weapon system din.
16:39.0
Thank you for that, Admiral. Again, I mean, it's common sense, right?
16:43.0
You're not gonna buy a Ferrari kung wala kang pang maintenance and make sure my service center and all, right? This is the logic.
16:49.0
Do you think that we're moving in the direction of creating that ecosystem?
16:54.0
Let's say, I don't want to use the word industrial-military complex. That would be a little bit too ambitious, pretentious.
17:00.0
But is there any move in that regards from the JAFUS meeting, from the squad, from some of the statements coming out of DND, from the information you have?
17:09.0
Meron ba tayong encouraging move on that front? Kasi I remember in the previous conversation, tinanong ko si Jay, and this is what I always ask my guests.
17:18.0
Nakakulang ba ang Amerika sa atin? I mean, they just gave 17 billion to Israel, 60 billion to Ukraine.
17:23.0
They have been giving billions to Jordan, Pakistan, those kinds of countries na hindi naman nila alay or nowhere as close to the US.
17:30.0
And then, of course, people always say, pero ang problema ng Pilipinas, back in the day, we had shiny American weapons, di naman natin na-maintain.
17:37.0
This is, I don't know, 60s, 70s, whatever.
17:39.0
So, are things changing in the right direction if we are moving towards getting more and more advanced weapon systems from our key allies?
17:48.0
O kaya nakita ko rito yung part of the system that we need to prepare is yung defense industry natin.
17:54.0
Kasi hindi pwedeng armed forces or the Department of Defense lang. There are some things that the private sector is more efficient in performing.
18:07.0
And papasok yan doon sa defense industry.
18:12.0
And I think yung batas para doon still under development.
18:17.0
Still under development, still under deliberation.
18:19.0
So, once matapos yun, I think then we have capacitated ourselves in terms of yung legal framework.
18:27.0
Di ba nakapasa tayo ng yung procurement law the other year? Hindi ba tapos na yan, Admiral? Parang 2022 pa yan, di ba? Enlighten me.
18:37.0
Procurement, different. Okay. Procurement, ganito yan na yan. Under the current setup kasi na natin,
18:43.0
it is biased against the government.
18:45.0
It is biased against the government. It is biased against the government. It is biased against the government.
18:46.0
It is biased against the government. It is biased against the government.
18:47.0
So, it defines a domestic industry.
18:49.0
Ah, industry, yeah, yeah, yeah.
18:50.0
More important than that, yeah, yeah.
18:52.0
Yung specification ng pre-modernization law,
18:56.0
you have to have three other countries actually using a system.
19:03.0
Na you're trying to acquire.
19:04.0
So obviously, tangkal ka agad yung domestic mo na proponen.
19:10.0
Kasi it does not exist yet eh. Okay?
19:13.0
So yung bias na yun should be corrected.
19:16.0
Kasi we can look at yung low-end type of equipment na pwede i-support ng future domestic industry natin.
19:28.3
I mean, all you have to do is to put, except in conditions where you want to develop the weapon system yourself,
19:33.5
dagdagan mo lang, kasi I get ko naman sinasabi ng tatlong countries,
19:36.3
kasi you want to make sure you don't buy mumbo-jumbo weapon systems, I don't know, from, I don't know, Siberia or whatever, right?
19:42.1
Pero, dadagdagan mo lang dyan, except in situation when you want to develop it, of course, infant industry,
19:48.4
and you cannot assure the market kaagad of tatlong countries.
19:51.0
So, I mean, I wonder what the heck are lawyers doing, people who are involved in this AFP modernization laws and all of that.
19:57.9
I mean, these are pretty common sense, di ba?
20:00.1
Kasi, I remember I was discussing with a number of defense experts how, for instance, Korea, India, Turkey, even Pakistan,
20:09.8
di ba, yung mga ganang countries, they're developing their defense industry.
20:12.1
Yung mga defense industries na eh, Brazil, kaya naman natin kung kaya ng mga ganitong developing countries.
20:17.3
Indonesia, di ba? Why not the Philippines?
20:19.9
So, medyo nagtataka ako bakit ang damang mga gaps sa ating batas,
20:23.1
why is it so discouraging to developing a domestic industry, defense industry?
20:29.0
I think it should be careful, a very close collaboration between private sector at government.
20:34.7
You mentioned about Indonesia, supported nila yung defense industry.
20:38.7
I mean, South Korea na lang, yun ang gold standard.
20:42.1
I mean, South Korea.
20:44.2
That was a collaboration between government and private sector to develop that industry.
20:50.8
Japan, ganun din.
20:52.3
So, if government doesn't recognize that type of industry as a future at all,
21:00.6
then hindi siya mag-startup.
21:04.7
So, basically, it takes two to tango, government and private sector.
21:12.1
I don't know, bago tayo ma-depress, kasi medyo sa minsan,
21:15.6
dahil mapapakamot ako na ulo,
21:17.6
ang daming hindi inisip.
21:18.9
So, for instance, we were talking about ICC, yung withdrawal ni Digong.
21:22.2
There's no law about withdrawal from a treaty.
21:24.8
So, I was talking to Senator Gatchalian also about this.
21:26.9
Parang, ano klaseng bansa yan?
21:28.7
Hindi nila naisip yung mga contingencies na yan.
21:34.3
Balikan natin ang balikatan.
21:35.9
So, as we speak, the balikatan is reaching its twilight moments,
21:39.2
but huge things have been happening.
21:42.1
Itong C-STAR missile system na ginamit ng BRP Rizal,
21:46.0
sinking vessel drills,
21:49.0
yung deployment ng Typhon,
21:50.6
although ginamit ng US.
21:52.3
HIMARS was once again featured in these exercises.
21:55.5
Not to mention, of course, geography.
21:58.1
First exercises in the exclusive economic zone outside the territorial sea.
22:01.5
French were involved.
22:02.9
And then there were exercises in Cagayan.
22:04.9
Now, let's talk about balikatan first.
22:06.3
What is your understanding of the weapon systems that were deployed
22:08.6
and the location of these exercises?
22:10.9
And the relevance, obviously.
22:13.1
Balikatan has two components or has two aspects to it.
22:17.1
Number one would be yung looking at readiness and that's through training
22:22.1
tsaka yung familiarization with the equipment that's used or the system that's used.
22:27.1
The second one is a signaling tool.
22:30.1
When I say signaling, it's one way of communicating to yung target audience,
22:35.1
in this case yung neighbor natin to the north, about our resolve or our intentions.
22:42.1
Hopefully, that creates the deterrence effect na we aspire for.
22:47.0
So, yun yung dalawang aspeto ng exercise, particularly dito sa balikatan exercise.
22:53.6
So, nakita natin, number one, there are several systems na ginamit o inesting or in exercise for the first time.
23:03.1
Particularly, siguro yung highlight niya would be yung sinking exercise or yung sink-ex.
23:10.1
In Northern Philippines.
23:13.1
And that was the first time na na-test yung missile, yung anti-ship missile system natin.
23:19.1
So, that creates confidence in the organization.
23:25.1
Kaya pala natin, kaya natin ito.
23:27.1
At ang importanteng part niyo dito na in-exercise na ito, yung tinatawag natin yung kill chain.
23:32.1
Yung kill chain system.
23:34.1
That's the one that links yung target acquisition.
23:40.1
Yung fixing the target and linking the shooter.
23:45.1
In this case, yung the one that shoots the missile to the target.
23:51.1
So, that requires a system na mag-integrate yung ISR mo o yung surveillance systems mo with your weapon system.
24:03.1
So, yun yung pinaka-importanteng na i-test in this type of exercise.
24:09.1
The other one naman, yung mga land exercises.
24:14.1
HIMARS yung ginamit diba?
24:17.1
Yung HIMARS, it's basically, the HIMARS is not something new.
24:21.1
Nagamit niya yung previous eh.
24:23.1
So, it's building on previous experience with the use of the HIMARS.
24:27.1
Yung HIMARS is very important kasi I think the armed forces is looking at it as a complementary system to the BRAMOS anti-ship missile system.
24:38.1
Yung BRAMOS is a full long range. 290 kilometers yung range niya.
24:42.1
But you also need a shorter range weapon.
24:45.1
In this case, that would be the HIMARS if the armed forces so decides to acquire it.
24:51.1
So, multi-layered parang onion-cabbage style, diba?
24:56.1
Kasi if we have the HIMARS, I would deploy it sa ating slots, yung ating strength.
25:03.1
For example, sa zone strength.
25:09.1
No, no, not mabulis. Kasi ma-beat yun eh.
25:13.1
Hindi kaya masyado malaki.
25:15.1
Sa where? Batanes or kagayan?
25:18.1
Yung sa Mindoro and of course sa Palawan.
25:22.1
So, those are areas effective ang HIMARS.
25:25.1
The BRAMOS is directed towards kasi outer layer na yan eh.
25:28.1
Papunta sa exclusive economic zone.
25:30.1
So, that creates yung pinatawag nating buffer between yung ating kalupahan,
25:36.1
yung ating baseline and yung extent nung yung pinaka maximum effective range ng missile system.
25:43.1
In this case is 290 kilometers.
25:46.1
And what about the French?
25:51.1
The exercises for the first time outside the territorial sea at kasama pa yung mga French?
25:55.1
Although alam ko medyo may konting plausible deniability the French participation.
26:00.1
But that was the first time the French were involved, right?
26:02.1
And obviously the French want to push for reciprocal access agreement.
26:05.1
Gusto tayong bentahan ng submarine.
26:07.1
So medyo hot ang mga French sa atin ngayon, di ba?
26:10.1
I think sa French naman, it's consistent with yung Indo-PACOM.
26:14.1
Kasi may sarili naman silang Indo-PACOM strategy.
26:16.1
And they're moving towards increased presence.
26:20.1
But of course, within the area, alam ko, isa lang naman talaga yung isa lang yung pinaka major surface combatant nila na nagpa-patrol.
26:30.1
And that was the vessel that participated in Balikatan exercise.
26:35.1
Also, they're also affected by yung projection ng China outward towards the Pacific.
26:45.1
Remember, the French are sa territorial territories in the Southern Pacific na binabantayan nila.
26:56.1
So they're also affected by what the developments dito sa Solomon Islands, dito sa may mid-Pacific, na mayroong increased presence ng Chinese influence.
27:06.1
Now, when it comes to Balikatan, do you think this is the new normal?
27:13.1
That we're gonna see more and more massive exercises and more and more advanced systems?
27:17.1
And by the way, yung Typhoon, what was the story about that? Ano ba talaga?
27:20.1
Dinaan lang dito, nagpakiyot lang yung Typhoon missile system ng US?
27:24.1
Launcher, sorry. What was the drama about that?
27:27.1
Okay, mas memper, yung Typhoon missile is a sort of, parang yan yung anti-accident.
27:33.1
Okay, mas memper, yung Typhoon missile is a sort of, parang yan yung anti-accident.
27:34.1
Okay, mas memper, yung Typhoon missile is a sort of, parang yan yung anti-accident.
27:35.1
So that's a lack of access anti-area denial system ng US Army.
27:39.1
Now, nakatak-in kasi in all Balikatan exercises, yung logistics component ng exercise ng US.
27:48.1
Kasi moving troupes and moving equipment from point A to point B, point B being the Philippines, that takes a lot of planning.
27:56.1
Particularly if you are moving more than let's say 10,000 or 15,000 troupes at any given time.
28:03.1
And yung associated equipment doon.
28:04.1
So yung logistics planning mo rin is complex and deliberate. So moving that typhoon diesel from wherever it came from, papunta sa Pilipinas, that in itself is already an exercise. You don't have to ask the initiative.
28:19.0
Okay. Pangalawa, the U.S. Army is exercising actually a new concept or a new doctrine nila, yung forward deployment. Yung U.S. Army nila is trying to be relevant sa Pacific. That is one of the challenges na inano nila.
28:36.2
Kasi basically the Pacific theater of operations is a U.S. Navy, U.S. Marine Corps lake or area. Yung U.S. Army plays a secondary role.
28:48.3
So I think this is one way of them developing, yung creating the relevance. Now on the typhoon missile system itself, to me that is a very important system.
29:02.7
Kasi ito yung ano eh, ito yung...
29:05.6
Paki-explain, what was the MISA? Why is it so important? Parang two years ago lang na-develop yun at saka first time na-deploy sa Indo-Pacific yan, diba? Medyo bago-bago to, diba?
29:15.1
Ito yung, ito yung ano eh, ito yung situation natin.
29:17.3
The entire Philippine archipelago is within the umbrella coverage ng A2AD capability ng China. That means in theory, it can hit us anywhere within the archipelago.
29:28.8
And we do not have a defense system to address that potential problem in the future.
29:36.5
So yung typhoon missile system actually is a defensive system that would address yung gap na yun.
29:45.4
We don't have the resources to buy or to develop this capability.
29:51.2
And I think this is something in my quiet conversation dun sa mga na-active service pa, we have to keep this in the conversation with our U.S. ally.
30:00.6
Kasi this is a gap, and it renders all our forces vulnerable within the entire Philippines.
30:10.3
So we need a different system.
30:11.8
So the typhoon missile system actually would address that.
30:15.4
So it's a good gap for me.
30:18.5
And in terms of the participation of what about other countries, Japan, Australia, and then ang daming inimbita this year, diba? Maraming from the ASEAN countries.
30:30.5
And China, bakit andun yung China? Is it to remind them of what we have? Is it part of the deterrence effect?
30:35.5
Kasi may Chinese observer, diba?
30:39.1
I think yung actual participants dun are yung U.S. at Philippines lang.
30:45.4
The rest are technically observers dun sa ano.
30:49.0
And yung participation nila is very minimal, particularly on the land exercises.
30:58.8
Yung naval exercises, pwede yun. Kasi yung barko kasi extension ng territory nila yan eh, wherever they go.
31:05.3
So wala tayong problema masyado for naval exercises.
31:08.1
But if you notice, yung sa land exercises natin, very constrained.
31:15.4
Instead, yung participation ng other groups.
31:18.4
Except maybe for Australia, kasi MSL pa tayo sa kanila.
31:22.9
So that's why yung Japan is, we're looking at yung access arrangement with them.
31:28.8
Para ma-increase nila yung footprint nila or yung participation nila in future exercises.
31:34.7
And most likely, ganun din yung sa French.
31:36.7
That's why they may be studying or actually looking at yung access arrangement also.
31:42.8
Because they also want to increase yung participation.
31:45.4
But beyond yung observer.
31:50.0
Right. Now, pag-usapan natin itong latest, itong latter part of yung,
31:55.2
kumbaga, I think, in a lawyerly, we set the predicate.
32:01.0
Ngayon, pag-usapan natin, ito nangyari ngayon sa Ayungin Shoal and Scarborough Shoal.
32:05.1
Before we go to the more speculative part, gusto kita natanong yun,
32:08.5
bilang isang former admiral sa Philippine Navy,
32:13.5
how do you feel about the situation na parang injure na tayo,
32:18.5
parang itsura natin, parang kawawa na?
32:20.3
I mean, again, I know we don't want to second-guess what's the strategy of the government.
32:24.7
My sense is, obviously, China is coming out as a bully here.
32:28.9
It's a diplomatic damage to them.
32:31.1
But diba, gusto natin maging David eh.
32:32.9
And David, mas maliit siya kay Goliath, pero macho siya, magaling siya, kawapo siya.
32:37.9
I mean, how do you become David without being kawawa?
32:41.1
I mean, what is the right balance there?
32:43.5
Kasi parang kinakawawa tayo.
32:45.7
Ba't tayo gumagamit ng mga lumang mga boats, diba?
32:48.3
Of course, I ask this question to active personnel like Commodore Trinidad,
32:52.3
but I want to take your view as someone who's a retired member of the Philippine Navy.
32:56.8
How do you see this and what do you think is the way forward?
32:59.2
Or should we just trust the wisdom of the government?
33:04.0
Richard, kasi I'll go back to ano yung ROE na nilatag namin.
33:10.3
And I will go back to yung...
33:13.5
Yung tactics mo on the ground, tactics mo at sea is only limited by your imagination.
33:19.4
So if you constrain yourself, you put guardrails into your responses,
33:26.0
of course, yun yung pupunta natin, yung mukha tayong kawawa.
33:30.7
Of course, at the back of our mind, we're also worried about yung potential escalation.
33:36.7
Nung hibaan natin.
33:39.2
So ano yung proper calibrated response?
33:43.5
What's the Goldilocks approach?
33:46.3
Let's put it that way.
33:51.7
Alam mo na, I sometimes use the analogy ng basketball, no?
33:57.3
So dito, if you play basketball in the West Philippine Sea,
34:03.1
and yung katunggalin mo is medyo aggressive yung ano niya,
34:07.9
nakipagbalyahan, nakipagsanggaan,
34:13.5
Tapos ikaw, yung coach mo, kinonstrain ka,
34:16.9
sabi, we are nice guys, we don't play around.
34:20.9
Desente tayo, desente.
34:23.9
Mangyari yan, magiging gymnastics yan,
34:26.3
paa ika, iipat sa ere,
34:28.0
dahil pag sinahod ka na o binalya ka na,
34:32.1
you're all over the place.
34:34.9
So to me, it's a matter of rules of engagement.
34:38.7
I-material lang kung malaking parko ka o malingitang parko ka.
34:43.5
It's how you respond eh, how you ano eh.
34:45.5
We are not deterring them kasi walang cost eh.
34:48.5
Okay, when after ka nun ka, walang cost sa kanila yun.
34:52.5
Sa kanila, physically.
34:54.5
Of course, reputation-wise, sa public opinion space,
35:00.5
in terms of yung information-wise, doon yung cost sa kanila.
35:03.5
Pero on at sea, walang physical cost sa kanila yun.
35:08.5
Kaya, kumbaga, sa kanila, okay.
35:13.4
So far, so good tayo.
35:15.2
Tuloy-tuloy lang yung water cannon nila,
35:17.0
tsaka yung calibrated collision nila sa atin.
35:21.0
And I've mentioned this, I think, before.
35:24.9
Since last December, I call it mission kill tactics.
35:29.9
They've started targeting yung communication system, radar system,
35:35.6
or yung bridge, yung pinaka-control ng barko.
35:42.2
This is not to...
35:43.4
actually sink yung barko natin,
35:45.4
but actually to render it incapacitated in such a way
35:49.4
na sa next sortie, hindi mo na magamit kasi kailangan mo pa-repair eh.
35:54.4
I see, yeah, yeah, yeah.
35:56.4
So, parang, yeah, I mean, you're right.
36:00.4
I mean, ipaparalyze mo, essentially, yung mga ganitong resupply capacity, diba?
36:05.4
I mean, is the status quo sustainable?
36:08.4
Every other day, magpaano tayo, magpa-damage tayo, magpa-injure tayo? Parang...
36:12.4
I'm not sure how sustainable this is.
36:14.4
I mean, I see the PR in terms of making sure na the world knows na bully ang China,
36:19.4
which I think everyone knows by this time already.
36:21.4
I mean, how much more reminder do we need?
36:23.4
But, I don't know.
36:24.4
I mean, sustainable ba ito? Ano ba talaga nangyari?
36:28.4
Kasi at some point, yung first five po,
36:31.4
pag pinaka-mabalya, eventually, bi-bench mo na yung first five po.
36:36.4
Mabuti kung may second five ka o may third five ka.
36:38.4
Ipapano kung wala.
36:41.4
And sila, malalim yung bench nila.
36:45.4
Buong liga yung bench nila, diba? Armada sila eh.
36:49.4
Pati nga yung cheering squad, tsaka yung coach nila nandoon sa back of the ball court.
36:54.4
So, yung sabihin, ang point ko, waro patresyon yan eh.
36:58.4
At some point, maubusan ka ng resources doon sa...
37:02.4
Minimission kill nila yung barko mo eh.
37:07.4
So, in a way, hindi masyadong bobo yun.
37:11.4
Yung strategy ng China, if I can put it that way.
37:13.4
In a way, they are paying a PR cost now,
37:16.4
but down the road, they may actually significantly degrade our capability to sustain these kinds of resupply missions.
37:24.4
Now, moving forward, Admiral, again, maybe you disagree with me,
37:27.4
but ang point ko is, should we do also our kind of reverse cabbage strategy?
37:32.4
Lago mo yung Philippine Coast Guard and then around it put Philippine Navy, right?
37:36.4
Or something like that, diba?
37:37.4
And I don't know, should we also do our own versions of that?
37:40.4
Even though limitado yung capability natin.
37:43.4
I mean, what are we looking at here?
37:46.4
Instead of itong mga kahoy-kahoy na boat na ito na private tong iba, diba?
37:53.4
Ginagamit ng Philippine Navy, hindi naman Navy mismo, diba?
37:56.4
Well, they are crewed by the Navy, so technically, Navy sila.
38:01.4
But the reason why ginagamit yung una-isa mo is hindi because yung kahoy siya, but yung ano nga.
38:08.4
Yung draft niya. Kasi yung papagpasok mo ng ayunensyal, malalim, mababaw yun.
38:15.4
So you need a vessel with the capacity, makapasok ito na hindi siya magra-run aground.
38:21.4
So that's basically the reason. I presume that the Navy has an alternative platform na bakal.
38:29.4
Yun ang gagamitin nila. But of course, that already changes.
38:35.4
It has to be a civilian vessel or a civilian-like vessel.
38:39.4
That in itself is constraining us to a certain course of action, in which in this case is yung una-isa may boats ang ginagamit natin.
38:51.4
Kung mga kinakuna natin yung sarili natin doon sa ganung type of tactic, eh basang-basa na lang China yun.
38:59.4
Kahit natutulog sila, alam na yung gagawin nila.
39:03.4
Exactly. Yun nga eh.
39:05.4
So yun nga eh. Like I think, that's why I ask, is this sustainable?
39:09.4
Kasi we're incurring injuries. God forbid. I know China is still using water cannons pa.
39:16.4
But I was told na dalawang Mike Tyson yan or something like that.
39:19.4
I said, pakitranslate yung power ng yung water cannon into punching power.
39:25.4
Parang sinabi nung isa, it's like a combination of Pacquiao and Tyson or something like that.
39:29.4
I mean, you can kill a person with that kind of punching power.
39:32.4
So are we waiting for disaster? Yeah. I mean, what?
39:35.4
What's going on here?
39:39.4
Basically Richard, we need to rethink tactics.
39:46.4
Yung tactics kasi is driven by maraming factors eh. Kung simple lang sana yung pag...
39:54.4
Kasi may politics involved eh. Meron yung escalation issue involved eh. So yun yung nag-de-define kung ano yung pwede mo gawin.
40:03.4
Tsaka hindi mo pwede gawin. Pero siguro ang pinaka-benchmark ko rito ay go back to yung Cod War.
40:11.4
Yung Cod War between United Kingdom tsaka Iceland. That was in the 60s and 70s.
40:17.4
Wala pang UNCLOS nun. And wala pang concept ng Exclusive Economic Zone.
40:23.4
Iceland was trying to protect yung area niya and yung United Kingdom being the United Kingdom,
40:31.4
was the dominant force dun sa area dun, sa North Sea.
40:35.4
But Iceland won that war. Using only civilian boats.
40:44.4
I didn't know this Iceland case study. Have you written something on this Admiral or you just came across it this time?
40:51.4
Hindi natin ang pag-uusapan ng Iceland. O Vikings yan eh.
40:55.4
That was in the 60s and 70s.
40:58.4
I was... Yun yung ano eh.
41:01.4
You haven't heard about it. This is the first time. I'll be honest. Like wow, that's interesting.
41:06.4
Baka Viking boats ang kailangan natin. Baka mga badyaw. Patala natin mga badyaw tsaka Moro brothers natin. Pwede ba yan?
41:14.4
Alam mo yung lumabas dun sa study na yun. Ang pinaka-winning factor dun, national winning.
41:23.4
It was not the tactics. It was not the type of vessel that was used.
41:30.4
Ang kalaban nila dun, mga British warship eh.
41:34.4
It was national will yung nag... Kaya nanalo yung Iceland.
41:41.4
They fought for yung interest nila.
41:43.4
Pero yun nga, I'm sure may national will yun kasi mga Vikings.
41:47.4
Ito na naman tayo. Pamak na naman ako.
41:51.4
Lastly, Admiral, I mean as we speak right now, there is an open call to expel the Chinese ambassador from the Philippines.
41:59.4
And ako, actually, we had a talk with Ronald Llamas just a few days ago na kailangan ba i-expel yung ambassador.
42:05.4
It's there on my YouTube. You can check it. So na-anticipate natin itong direction of the wind.
42:10.4
What is your read of what's going on with China? Itong mga special temporary arrangement, new model, model or whatever.
42:18.4
Again, I know it's a bit speculative but there's a big picture.
42:22.4
Do you think China is kind of panic mode scrambling? Medyo they're running out of ideas?
42:28.4
Again, surface level read because I think none of us have a direct information confidential on this or if we had, we won't share.
42:36.4
Okay, siguro number one, and yun naman I gave lectures on political warfare.
42:42.4
It proves the point that embassies and consulates are actually operating in terms of united front work activities.
42:53.4
Kasi yung ginagawa niya, those are not typical activities of an ordinary embassy.
42:56.4
Right, right. Kasi yung ginagawa niya, those are not typical activities of an ordinary embassy.
42:57.4
Kasi yung ginagawa niya, those are not typical activities of an ordinary embassy.
42:58.4
Those are united front work activities.
43:01.4
So disinformation, propaganda...
43:05.4
Makapiling korporasyon.
43:07.4
Yeah, yung cooptation of political or key decision makers within yung country that you are deployed in.
43:17.4
Those are classic united front work activities.
43:20.4
So outright, they are already violating...
43:24.4
Sovereignty natin.
43:26.4
Kung titignan natin yung international rules that govern how embassies and consulates should operate,
43:34.4
they are violating it upfront.
43:38.4
So tama lang naman yung call for, yung i-consider yung persona ng gagata certain personalities doon sa embassy.
43:45.4
Kasi they are actually going overboard.
43:48.4
So this is like the Soviet Union before, di ba?
43:52.4
Na biglang pa-expel yung ambassador.
43:54.4
Kasi na-find out na puro palang KGB yung mga nandun, di ba?
43:58.4
I mean, you understand there are going to be intelligence and defense officers.
44:01.4
Pero hindi yung all-out na...
44:02.4
I mean, what do you think about this crazy situation?
44:05.4
May mayor dyan sa Tarlac na wala tayong birth certificate until 17 years old siya.
44:10.4
And then, I mean, Chinese yung father, may POGO operations.
44:14.4
I mean, this is insane.
44:15.4
Baka they're all related, no?
44:17.4
I mean, again, I know this...
44:18.4
Di umanoy. Di umanoy.
44:20.4
I mean, this looks like something crazy is going on in the Philippines over the past few years.
44:24.4
Actually, it's related, Richard.
44:27.4
I recall after the Scarborough show, we ran an assessment around 2013.
44:36.4
And lumabas na sa assessment namin that if we have a problem with China in the future, and that was 2013,
44:44.4
it's not going to be something like meron kang makikitang Chinese or PLA Marines invading an isolated island.
44:55.4
Ang area, magpapanag po tayo within our own bureaucracy.
45:02.4
Doon ang arena of conflict.
45:04.4
The reason being, number one, we are a democratic country so inherently open tayo.
45:09.4
Pangalawa, we do not have perfect bureaucracies.
45:12.4
And you know what I mean.
45:15.4
Yung issue related doon sa mayor sa Bamban.
45:20.4
We would be looking at yung operations ng civil registrars natin.
45:27.4
In terms of fidelity, integrity in the way they perform their role or their task as part of the bureaucracy.
45:36.4
Meron pa yung ano, hindi pa natin kinukonsider yung sa real estate.
45:43.4
Kasi anekdota lang because we cannot prove.
45:46.4
But yung ano, yung...
45:48.4
The possibility of Filipinos being used by Chinese interests as dummies and buying real estate properties around military camps.
45:57.4
And that is a factor of yung may butas yung bureaucracy natin in terms of actually yung implementation of yung real estate regulations natin.
46:07.4
So hindi lang yung mayor.
46:12.4
Baka we find ourselves, baka yung major camps natin.
46:15.4
And this is happening in the United States.
46:17.4
I think that was in Texas, yung Air Force Base nila.
46:23.4
Yung property around it was bought by a third party.
46:31.4
Yeah, so mukhang...
46:34.4
Again, of course, Admiral Long, we want to make sure na we don't get into kind of xenophobic prejudicial discussion and all.
46:40.4
Pero hindi naman tayo na pwede na mang-mang lang.
46:44.4
I mean, so I talked to...
46:46.4
I mean, Senator Gatchalian was a Chinoy himself.
46:48.4
He openly says, itong mga pogo na ito dapat i-ban eh.
46:51.4
Na talagang ano ito eh.
46:54.4
This is like a gangrene, right?
46:56.4
It's eating into our bureaucracy.
46:58.4
Umabot ang pera kung saan saan.
47:00.4
Hanggang ngayon hindi nila masasara.
47:02.4
Hindi nila maaalam saan papunta ito.
47:05.4
So that means the enemy is within the gates, right?
47:10.4
So do we need like a sweeping response?
47:14.4
I mean, literally a sweep?
47:16.4
I mean, looks like medyo compromise na tayo eh because of the Duterte legacy.
47:21.4
No, in fairness naman, it's not because of former President Duterte lang kasi I think it was ongoing before 5.
47:28.4
Kasi these are systems...
47:29.4
No, but the pogos came in big time during Digong.
47:32.4
Ah yeah, the pogo, yes.
47:34.4
But what I mean is there are already, even before him, there are already systemic gaps or loopholes within the bureaucracy natin that needs to be plugged. Okay?
47:44.4
So kumaka, nagkaroon tayo ng perfect storm nung previous 6 years. Okay?
47:51.4
Meron ka ng gaps then yung environment, the political environment is conducive to actually accentuating yung loopholes nila.
48:03.4
I know you're trying to avoid to get a little bit too speculative but unfortunately ito pa yung mga gustong-gusto ng tao. Ito yung mga speculative part.
48:10.4
So don't worry, I'm gonna bring back si Ronald Yama sa Discord.
48:14.4
Gusto is part kasi siya yung farmworks ka agad.
48:17.4
But again, no surprise, right? We saw this disaster coming. We have been warning about this for a long time at ngayon mukhang medyo may moment of reckoning tayo.
48:27.4
And as I said, as we speak, there's a call for expulsion of the Chinese ambassador for among others engaging in disinformation activities.
48:35.4
And as you put it politely, for breaching the normal jurisdiction of what an embassy should do in another country. Mukhang medyo next level na ito nangyari.
48:43.4
So I think this also brings home itong analogy of the Philippines kind of being the Vienna slash Berlin, right?
48:52.4
I mean, this is where the new Cold War is happening, right?
48:55.4
I mean, we know for a fact that Americans are here, a lot of them, right?
48:59.4
So it looks like the Chinese part have stepped up their game also at hindi ito marites lang.
49:05.4
We are the Casablanca of South East Asia.
49:08.4
That's sexier, yeah. Casablanca. I'm sure they would love it. Yeah, yeah.
49:12.4
I wanted to say Havana kasi yung Havana naging communist na. So let's not get there.
49:17.4
Yeah, I think Casablanca is also another way of putting it although with a slightly different historical reference.
49:23.4
But that's a good suggestion. The Vienna and Berlin is a bit too cold as a reference for Manila nowadays.
49:29.4
Admiral, thank you so much. I wanted to ask more marites of you but sabi ko parang ilang ka na yata so I will pull in someone else to discuss this.
49:37.4
But thank you so much, Admiral. Is there something else you want to add on this issue in general?
49:41.4
In terms of moving forward in AFP modernization, Navy, what are the things that we have to keep in mind?
49:47.4
Ano yung mga checklist natin na we have to deal with in the coming years?
49:52.4
I think Richard, hindi ko nasagot yung question mong mag-gentleman sa agreement ko.
49:56.4
Ayoko pala, sorry. Please, please go ahead.
49:58.4
Siguro. Hindi naman ito bago. Even before, decades ago, that has been always yung practice nila.
50:09.4
They'll try to...
50:10.4
Pag nagka-problema sa dagat, at least for the Navy experience, they will always call you up and ask you what happened.
50:21.4
Ang practice kasi namin nun, and I'm not sure kung yun pa rin yung practice namin, ang humaharap lang sa kanila are intelligence officers or intelligence staff.
50:32.4
The reason why is trained yun para makipag-deal sa kanila.
50:40.4
Almost all engagement or conversation with them, recorded yun.
50:49.4
By both sides. O para sigurado.
50:51.4
Hindi, sa atin. Ang tawag namin yung contact reporter. When you submit that to higher headquarters, okay, I met, so they went to my office, we discussed this. So naka-report yun.
51:05.4
That is yung protection ng organization.
51:08.4
Saka yung protection ng kausap nila. Everything's above court. Okay. Now, the reason why, if you remember, I think during the former administration, there was an attempt to...
51:21.4
Remember nakaset up sila ng hotline with the Coast Guard. Okay. And they were trying to replicate that with the Armed Forces. In fact, they want a hotline with NOLCOM, saka hotline with Westpong, which we objected to, precisely because ang gagawin nila,
51:36.4
Precisely because ang gagawin nila,
51:37.9
dederecho sila doon sa operational commander.
51:41.6
Pag may problema sa West Virginia.
51:44.7
Kaya ni-reject yun.
51:46.2
But ang naging compromise doon,
51:49.3
it should be with the Department of Foreign Affairs
51:54.4
Kasi na to protect the organization.
51:56.0
I see what you're saying.
51:58.4
So if we breach that protection mechanism,
52:03.0
pagiging vulnerable tayo.
52:04.3
Yeah, that's a very good point.
52:08.8
So what do you think about itong audio daw,
52:10.9
i-release nila ito?
52:12.0
Compromat ba ito?
52:14.0
I mean, there are open warnings about
52:15.6
deepfakes being used to sow confusion.
52:18.3
Kasi ako, Admiral,
52:19.6
ang basa ko dito is,
52:21.1
obviously mukhang ewan sila
52:22.5
to much of the world with what they're doing.
52:27.0
this will allow other ASEAN countries
52:29.7
na medyo pro-China,
52:31.2
or ayaw tumulong sa atin,
52:32.8
oh, see, yung pala eh,
52:34.3
kayo pala mga Pinayang magulo eh.
52:36.9
Taman naman yung sinabi ng audio.
52:38.0
Yung pala, nangako kayo,
52:39.0
kayong pampagulo.
52:39.8
You get what I'm saying?
52:40.3
Like, it gives excuse for others
52:41.9
to remain neutral
52:44.1
or take China's side.
52:46.5
may value din sa China yan eh
52:49.2
and come up with confusion
52:50.9
and disinformation.
52:53.5
I will interpret it sa parang, ano,
52:55.3
political blackmail.
52:58.2
Kasi may escalation siya eh.
53:00.8
Parang three-piece eh.
53:02.6
Meron akong, ano,
53:03.6
meron akong ganito.
53:04.3
Pero blackmail mo,
53:07.2
sino makompromise diyan?
53:08.9
if it's current officials,
53:11.8
creating a backfire, right?
53:13.9
Lalo sila maging aggressive against you.
53:15.6
If it's an ex-official,
53:17.2
pinahamak mo pa yung asset mo,
53:21.3
Depende sa ano eh.
53:22.4
Kasi they can make a mistake.
53:24.2
ang problema nila,
53:26.7
I think they misread us eh.
53:29.7
They don't understand
53:30.5
how a Filipino mind
53:34.3
Kasi kung, ano, ano,
53:37.1
ang tawag namin dyan sa military,
53:39.0
mirror imaging eh.
53:41.9
when you project your own biases
53:43.4
You project themselves,
53:44.5
They think we're like China.
53:46.5
So they would be projecting,
53:49.9
I will think this way
53:50.7
and I will act this way.
53:52.1
And we're not acting that way.
53:53.8
Kaya that confuses them.
53:57.2
siguro nakita nila
53:58.1
ang calibration nila dito,
53:59.8
I will gradually,
54:05.8
siguro sa calculation nila,
54:11.6
exposure of that,
54:23.9
This is like mafia stuff.
54:25.6
this is like KGB mafia.
54:33.6
This is pathetic.
54:35.6
anong gusto nila ma-achieve dito?
54:37.5
the only thing I can think about is,
54:40.6
Cambodia's of this world
54:42.2
si mga Pilipinang pampagule,
54:44.0
Kasi yun yung narrative nila, eh.
54:47.0
but everyone is denying it
54:49.4
kasi umabot na sa isang sitwasyon
54:53.3
wala nang official
54:54.0
na gusto makipag-usap sa kanila
54:56.0
you don't feel safe, eh.
54:57.4
They will just make up stories,
54:59.1
Papakamak ka lang nila, eh.
55:00.2
huwag na tayo mag-usap.
55:03.8
I think the word,
55:12.1
They're trying to get a handle of,
55:13.2
they're trying to get a handle
55:15.1
of the situation.
55:17.5
Particularly yung,
55:18.2
yung propaganda war na natin.
55:20.2
They're trying to get a handle of it.
55:28.2
tayo yung nag-detectate
55:29.3
na narrative na yun, eh.
55:33.2
rest away from them.
55:34.7
So, I think it's them
55:38.4
yung control of the narrative.
55:41.0
Exactly, yeah, yeah.
55:46.3
parang mga, ano eh,
55:47.6
major radio mistake niyan, eh.
55:49.8
Yung ginagawa nila.
55:51.1
it actually exposes
55:52.8
yung kanilang, ano,
55:54.8
non-diplomatic activities nila
56:00.5
I'm sure this is just
56:04.3
it looks as desperate
56:15.0
desperation mode,
56:18.3
this is ridiculous.
56:20.4
what do you think
56:21.8
is the best course of action
56:24.0
Marcos administration?
56:25.7
Is it just to allow
56:27.8
should we be Napoleon
56:29.2
if your enemy is making
56:31.2
essentially choke on
56:32.0
their own mistake,
56:33.5
fall on their own sword?
56:36.1
baka nakakatakot na ito,
56:37.6
na baka kung naging
56:40.0
whether it's China
56:40.7
or their assets here,
56:42.6
something very stupid.
56:44.2
aren't we worried about it?
56:46.3
somewhere saying,
56:47.1
it's time to show the sword,
56:48.5
yung expression na gano'n.
56:50.6
I don't wanna fearmonger
56:51.7
kasi gawain na makapili yan.
56:54.1
at the same time,
56:54.5
I don't wanna be too
56:57.7
what's the Goldilocks
57:02.1
You have to understand
57:03.1
ano yung objective nila,
57:05.2
before you can make a response.
57:09.8
Secretary Ronald,
57:14.7
convergence yung ating
57:15.9
problems sa West Philippines.
57:18.2
Saka yung domestic
57:19.0
political problems natin.
57:26.2
for want of better word,
57:27.2
parang nakakaroon ng
57:28.0
you can already sense yung
57:30.6
parang unholy alliance
57:31.6
between the two parties
57:34.7
if I were in their shoes,
57:36.3
if I were in the shoes
57:39.9
and I look at yung
57:44.2
one thing that creates
57:47.8
it's the President.
57:50.9
nag-detect siya yung
57:51.8
driver ng foreign policy
57:57.6
I need to look at it.
57:57.6
I need to look at it.
57:57.6
I need to look at it.
57:57.7
I need to look at it.
57:57.7
I need to look at it.
57:58.0
I need to look at
58:10.0
yun yung ano yun,
58:16.0
to Sikary Llamas,
58:17.4
who's listening to us
58:22.6
This is what I and
58:24.1
discussing for the
58:25.6
na makakaalaman na
58:28.5
Damay-damay na eh.
58:33.2
I go back to yung
58:33.8
kinuwento ko kanina
58:38.8
yung sistema natin,
58:40.4
the way we operate
58:44.3
ang tinatawag natin
58:45.4
center of gravity,
58:46.3
ang center of gravity
58:49.2
Not the president
58:50.7
but the presidency
58:54.7
that revolves around
58:56.7
Yun yung center of gravity
59:01.2
being the center of gravity,
59:02.5
yun din yung focus
59:08.0
political attacks
59:12.1
pag nakuha mo yun
59:13.2
or nakipag mo yun,
59:21.5
government natin.
59:28.1
a moment of truth
59:33.7
ako nag-start ako
59:34.4
sa West Philippines
59:36.8
Talagang everyday
59:41.5
if you're not looking
59:45.9
Thank you so much
59:56.8
Philippines developments.
59:59.1
thank you so much,
60:00.1
Just to end on this,
60:01.8
something different
60:02.5
like Ezra Klein style.
60:04.6
recommendations of
60:05.5
what should people
60:06.7
read from your works
60:10.6
better understand
60:11.8
itong predicament
60:13.2
at ano mga kailangan
60:14.1
natin gawin sa West Philippines?
60:15.5
two or three articles
60:23.9
going to work, no?
60:24.8
Siguro I mentioned
60:30.7
or research on the
60:43.3
versus a major power
60:52.1
How did they do that?
60:54.5
the lesson natin.
60:55.8
Thank you so much
61:00.5
Are there any articles
61:01.3
of yours that you recommend?
61:02.5
Yung recent articles
61:03.2
that people can check?
61:06.9
it's in Raptor naman.
61:10.0
previous articles
61:12.0
West Philippine Sea
61:13.2
tapos on the trilateral.
61:15.4
at saka yung asymmetric.
61:17.3
I appreciate about
61:18.2
is yung discussion natin
61:19.2
of let's learn something
61:23.8
drones and other things
61:28.9
with much more powerful
61:30.1
and advanced countries.
61:31.0
Pwede rin natin gamitin yan.
61:32.4
thank you so much again,
61:33.8
And talk to you soon.
61:37.0
Thank you, Richard.
61:42.4
Thank you very much, Admiral.
61:45.2
Thank you so much again
61:49.7
Pangako sa inyo na
61:51.8
back-to-back guests
61:53.7
Also, God willing,
61:54.3
tomorrow we're gonna have
61:55.7
si Justice Carpio.
61:57.4
Then, early next week naman,
61:59.7
Senator Trillianes
62:02.6
mga developments.
62:03.5
And as we speak also now,
62:04.7
there's an open call
62:05.4
for the expulsion
62:06.0
of the Chinese ambassador.
62:08.1
Big, big, big developments
62:10.3
thank you very much, guys.
62:11.2
Yung mga naipit sa traffic,
62:12.9
I hope you'll find
62:16.1
please continue to support us
62:17.5
and continue to support
62:20.1
Libre lang mag-subscribe.
62:21.5
Libre lang mag-support.
62:22.6
And please also recommend
62:25.4
expansion ng support natin,
62:26.8
especially on YouTube
62:28.2
other newer platforms
62:31.2
and Apple Podcast,
62:32.5
Richard Heydarian Show.
62:34.6
Talk to you soon.
62:35.2
Richard Heydarian Podcast,
62:37.7
Thank you very much.
