01:01.6
kayang tapusin lahat ng problema.
01:03.2
So ngayon naman, may bagong version tayo ng 3 to 6 months ni Tatay Digong.
01:07.1
At ito mga kamets, ito ay yung charter change.
01:11.1
Ito na naman yung charter change.
01:12.4
So ngayon, may mga henyo dyan na nagsabi,
01:16.0
lahat na ating mga problema, yung mga pagkakulang sa mga investors,
01:21.2
yung the fact na naiwan tayo ng mga kapitbahay natin,
01:27.3
is yung economic competitiveness,
01:29.1
lahat yan pwede natin ayusin, mag-charter change lang tayo,
01:32.4
yun lang naman kailangan and everything's gonna be fine.
01:34.5
Now, obviously, may mga grupo na interesado dyan
01:37.4
at pinag-usapan natin bakit napaka-simplistic yung ganyang argumentation.
01:41.4
Huwag niyo naman kalimutan,
01:43.1
back in the 50s and 60s, the Philippines was among the 5 fastest growing economies in the world.
01:48.0
Kaya nga yung Asian Development Bank ay nilagay sa Pilipinas,
01:51.2
hindi sa Seoul, hindi sa Tehran, at hindi sa Tokyo.
01:54.3
And back then, hindi po tayo parliamentary system.
01:57.3
So, clearly, kung may isang dahilan ng Pilipinas ay napag-iwanan,
02:03.5
ito ay dahil may mga kapal pa ka na nangyari
02:05.7
when it comes to our leaders from 1970s onwards.
02:10.1
Whether ito yung panahon ng diktatorya,
02:12.7
kung kailan napag-iwanan tayo ng mga kapitbahay natin na marami.
02:16.1
I mean, South Korea and the Philippines had the same per capita income in the early 1960s and all.
02:21.5
By 1986, nung umalis na yung diktatorya
02:25.3
at nanalo yung ETSA,
02:27.2
the Philippines was like several times poorer than South Korea.
02:31.7
And South Korea actually by then already had the embers of globally competitive industries.
02:37.6
So, habang yung South Korea may mga diktators,
02:39.8
yung Taiwan ay mga diktator nung time na yan under Ko Min-tang,
02:44.0
and then yung South Korea under Park Chung-hee,
02:46.4
meron din tayong diktator for 21 years,
02:49.0
pero anong naiwan niya sa atin pagdating sa Hyundai, Samsung,
02:53.0
globally competitive manufacturing industries?
02:57.2
And then, sa daming inutang, ang daming kapalpakan,
03:00.9
so napagpilitan, napilitan yung mga sumunod ng administration
03:05.9
na bendahin na lang lahat ng mga strategic industries.
03:10.7
So, kaya ang nangyari doon is,
03:12.4
nagkaroon ng kapalpakan doon privatization time
03:14.8
at napunta kong kaninong oligark yung ating electricity, water.
03:19.1
Kaya ang Pilipinas has one of the most expensive internet, water, electricity, utilities,
03:23.3
which is, by the way, one of the reasons na ang mga investors,
03:27.2
siya ayaw sa Pilipinas.
03:28.2
Kasi mas mura ang tubig, mas mura ang electricity especially,
03:31.9
which is important for manufacturing doon sa mga kapit-baya na bansa.
03:35.2
And pagdating sa corruption, isang malaking problema sa atin is,
03:37.5
sa ibang bansa, alam mo na sinong kausap mo.
03:39.6
There's one ruling party, yun ang kausap mo.
03:41.7
There's one big guy there, yun ang kausap mo.
03:43.4
Sa Pilipinas, bawat level, naku, hanggang barangay level,
03:46.7
hanggang, minsan, ba't yung mga sanggun niyang kabataan,
03:49.3
lahat yata may, ano, diba, yun yung accusations na grabe daw,
03:52.1
grabe daw yung corruption sa Pilipinas.
03:53.4
So, isa pa yan sa mga dahilan na hindi pumuputang mga investors dito.
03:56.2
So, sasabihin mo na dahil lang sa 1987 Constitution,
03:59.6
lahat ng problema natin, it's complete nonsense.
04:02.5
Now, hindi ko sinasabi na perfecto yung 1997 Constitution,
04:05.4
parang hindi ko sinasabi na masyado siyang restrictive
04:08.1
pagdating sa term of office.
04:10.0
Sa aking palagay, isang galing na presidente has to have
04:12.5
two four-year term in office, or Indonesia style,
04:15.6
two five-year term in office.
04:17.4
Too short for a good president, too long for a bad president,
04:20.3
yung single six-year term in office.
04:22.1
So, I have a number of problems.
04:23.4
So, mga kameta, dito sa mga charter change na yan.
04:27.1
O, kamusta naman dyan sa mga si bossing mate,
04:30.8
yung mga tiktokers natin, yung mga low-lifes dyan.
04:34.3
Okay, salamat, Sarah, for pushing up our engagements.
04:37.4
Sige, yung mga loser dyan.
04:38.6
Okay, balikan natin ito.
04:40.1
So, yun, yun ang problema natin.
04:41.5
Dami mga bara-bara mag-isip,
04:43.6
dami mga syungang, ano, katulad ng mga troll na ganyan,
04:46.7
at mga binibigyan nilang solution ay et sa puwera.
04:49.6
Dahil sa et sa lahat ang problema natin.
04:51.2
When even, when you look at the facts,
04:53.4
actually, dun sa 1970s, 80s talaga tayo napag-iwanan ng mga kapitbahay natin.
04:58.5
Just compare Philippines with South Korea in 1960s,
05:01.3
compare Philippines-South Korea in 1980s.
05:04.2
I can also talk about Malaysia,
05:05.7
and I can also talk about Thailand.
05:07.2
Actually, napag-iwanan din tayo ng Thailand.
05:08.7
So, mga pang-usapan yan, marami tayong vlogs,
05:11.0
marami tayong nasulat sa isang mga issue na ito.
05:13.6
So, I'm not gonna go too much into them.
05:15.6
Now, the thing is,
05:17.2
mukhang yung mga iba dyan sobrang desidido
05:19.2
na magkaroon ng charter change in the short run.
05:23.4
So, mukhang kung ano na nang ginagawa.
05:26.5
So, kanina may parang expose na naman
05:28.2
ang mga kapatid natin dyan sa TV5.
05:31.3
Mayroong report dyan.
05:32.3
Tingnan naman itong report na ito.
05:34.0
So, grabe, mukhang talagang pinipilit na ito eh,
05:37.0
na i-railroad yung so-called people's initiative,
05:40.9
yung mga ganyang kayekikan.
05:42.1
Dahil, you know, I have nothing against people's initiative,
05:45.5
but I have something about,
05:46.7
I have something against, you know,
05:48.9
people using all sorts of different mechanism
05:51.0
to circumvent yung mga existing institutions,
05:53.2
including yung Senado,
05:54.3
which has, which generally has been quite a, you know,
05:58.1
a bastion of relative independence and sanity,
06:01.1
kung titignan natin throughout the years, no?
06:03.3
So, eto mga ka-meta, no?
06:04.3
Tingnan natin ito.
06:07.0
Etong report na ito,
06:08.1
just to give you an idea of what we're facing
06:12.5
dito sa ating bansa
06:14.1
at the thing, the lengths that certain people will go to
06:17.1
para lang i-push a certain agenda.
06:19.9
Pakinggan nyo yan ah.
06:40.1
may nakita sila taga-administration ng,
06:43.7
I don't know, ng, ng, ng Quezon City daw,
06:47.7
na nag-dedistribute ng forms.
06:49.7
Eh, natingnan nyo ulit.
06:51.0
...na nagbabahay-bahay sa barangay Tatalon.
06:53.2
Para yan, mangalap ng pirma ng mga butante.
06:55.6
Sabay, pinasusulat sa kanila ang present number.
06:58.5
Nagtanongin namin kung para saan ang pinapipirmahan niya.
07:02.4
Nakalagay doon, Tagalog eh.
07:05.1
Kung sumasang-ayon tayo
07:08.1
na yung mga dayuhan
07:10.4
eh, ano, mag-i-invest sa Pilipinas.
07:13.9
Diba, parang out of nowhere,
07:15.1
biglang may may mayang question na
07:16.6
gusto nyo ba na mag-i-invest ng mga dayuhan sa Pilipinas?
07:19.3
ayun, obviously, gusto natin ng foreign direct investments,
07:21.8
to a certain degree,
07:23.0
nangutulong ito sa job creation, etc.
07:26.4
nakikita nyo medyo leading yung questions.
07:28.2
So parang sinasabi mo,
07:28.9
kung gusto mo lang investment,
07:30.0
then dapat gusto mo rin ng chacha, diba?
07:31.6
But, this is the more important part.
07:33.9
Utos daw ito sa andila ng barangay Community Relation Department
07:38.4
Ang ilang residente pumirma agad
07:40.5
sa pagkakalang para ito sa ayuda ng lokal na pamahalaan.
07:45.3
nagsasign na lang
07:46.7
or nangikinig dito
07:48.2
dahil sa kanilang palagay,
07:49.5
sa kanilang palagay,
07:51.2
akala nila ito yung mga forms
07:53.0
para sa mga ayuda.
07:54.3
So kung finil out mo yung form na yan,
07:55.9
meron kang chance na makumuha ng ayuda.
07:57.6
Of course, alam natin,
07:58.4
marami sa ating mga kaubayan
07:59.6
ay naihirapan ngayon
08:01.1
dahil sa inflation,
08:02.2
dahil sa mga problema sa ating ekonomiya.
08:03.8
Of course, marami pa rin sa ating kaubayan
08:06.4
ay below the poverty line.
08:07.6
So again, let's be very clear about this, okay?
08:11.1
kung sulat lang yung pangalan mo,
08:12.3
malay mo kung ano ibigay sa amin sa mainirap.
08:15.4
Ito po ay para sa mga, ano ito,
08:17.8
sa mga mayang Pilipino na nangailangan ng tulong.
08:23.0
Kung mabibigay ang pangako na magkaroon ng ayuda.
08:26.9
Pero may ilang kumangging pumirma
08:28.7
nang mabasa ang laman ng papel.
08:30.4
Di pala kasi ito para sa ayuda ng lungsod,
08:32.8
kundi petisyon para ma-amianda ng saligang batas
08:36.0
gamit ang People's Initiative.
08:37.8
Parang ayuda nga din kasi galing sa Kongres.
08:42.0
Hindi ako normally sumasabi sa mga piti-petisyon
08:46.1
kasi nadala na ako from the last time.
08:49.2
Nang tanungin namin si Merry,
08:50.9
mismo siya aminadog hindi alam
08:52.8
kung para saan ang pinapipirma sa mga residente sa QC.
08:56.2
Bago yan, siniwalit ni Albay Rep. Edsel Lagman
08:59.8
na may nakarating sa kanyang may mga bayaran sa PICO
09:02.9
kapalit ng pirma ng mga botante
09:04.9
na gagamitin sa pag-amianda ng konstitusyon.
09:07.7
Para paboran ng mga tao ang magkasamang pagboto
09:10.3
ng Senado at Kamara para sa charter change.
09:13.1
Sa ngayon, ayon kay Mayor Joy Belmonte,
09:15.5
nakarating na raw sa kanya ang ginagawang pag-
09:17.5
So, ito, just to be fair, Mayor Joy Belmonte,
09:20.3
somehow yung bagong paborita ng mga medyo
09:22.6
woke at progressives at mga mga ibang pink d'yan,
09:25.1
in fairness naman, she's distancing herself from this.
09:27.6
And in fact, may clarification siya dito.
09:29.6
Kalap ng pirma ng mga kongresista sa Quezon City.
09:32.6
Pero hindi raw pinaalam sa kanya ito ng mga mambabatas.
09:35.6
Nilapitan ko ng mga punong barangay na yung mga congressman nagpapipirma sa kanila.
09:41.6
So, they wanted to be clarified kung ano ba yung mga amendment.
09:44.6
Wala pong kitlangan sa local government po yan.
09:46.6
Yan po yung initial proof po ng mga congressman.
09:50.5
Yan. So, just to be clear,
09:52.6
yung sabi ni Mayor dito is wala siyang kinalaman d'yan.
09:55.6
Bati sila doon sa City Hall sa Quezon City ay medyo nagkakamot ng ulan.
09:59.6
Saan ba galing ito?
10:00.6
At mukhang itong initiative na ito ay hindi galing sa executive branch dito sa Quezon City
10:06.6
pagdating sa mayor office.
10:08.6
Pero potentially galing ito sa mga ibang congressman or kongreso.
10:12.6
Yung mga tao na may interest to push for this people initiative.
10:15.6
Now, katulad ng pinag-usapan natin doon sa mga iba't ibang vlogs natin at saka mga writings natin,
10:22.6
yun nga, dahil alam ng mga iba d'yan na mahihirapan sila to push for charter change through the Senate,
10:27.6
hindi nila mararam through the Senate because you need a three-fourths majority there to pass it,
10:30.6
to get the ball rolling.
10:32.6
Ang iniisip siguro ng iba d'yan,
10:34.6
and in fact, malabo nga even si Robin Hood Padilla magsusuporta dito kasi mukhang medyo na-sense din niya na
10:40.6
baka iba yung intention behind this than the one he had in mind.
10:43.6
Now, so because of that, mga kameta, medyo may worries.
10:47.6
So, you can see na this is parang their parallel movement.
10:52.4
There are movements allegedly by certain congressmen in certain major cities pushing for,
10:58.4
nagpapapirma sila sa mga tao galing sa iba't ibang presinto so that they meet the threshold.
11:05.4
I think it's something like they need just below one million, something like that, of voters or something like that
11:13.4
to get the ball rolling. May threshold yan, yung 12% at 3%.
11:17.4
We can talk about that separately doon sa people's initiative.
11:20.4
But just to be clear about this, yung issue ng people's initiative,
11:22.3
actually ay hindi siya finalized in legal sense.
11:25.3
Medyo hindi clear yung kanyang implementing rules and regulations katulad ng pinag-usapan natin with Ronald Capon.
11:31.3
And potentially, this issue could also be pulled all the way to the Supreme Court.
11:35.3
If not, magkakaroon ng constitutional crisis.
11:38.3
So, there are gonna be people who will question yung constitutionality itong people's initiative
11:41.3
if it is deemed to be a vehicle for circumvention of Senate and ramming through a certain questionable move,
11:48.3
potentially at the expense ng ating saligang batas at ating demokrasya.
11:52.3
So, let's look at that.
11:53.3
Now, just to be clear about this, hindi ako disagree sa constitutional amendments.
11:58.3
Actually, I agree with that certain constitutional amendments should happen.
12:01.3
Hindi rin ako disagree doon sa parliamentary system in theory.
12:05.3
Although, medyo nag-aaral tayo sa buhay, medyo alam natin yung sinasabi natin.
12:08.3
So, titingnan mo yung Bangladesh, Iraq, I can go on and on.
12:11.3
Many countries, even Turkey in the past, nakita natin na kung sabog yung political system mo,
12:16.3
kung maraming kang mga trapos, gagamitin nila even yung parliamentary system to consolidate power.
12:21.2
This is Sheikh Hasina, all the way to Erdogan, and the mess that we have in other developing countries.
12:26.2
So, yung mga nagsasabi na mag-parliamentary tayo, automatically magiging First World tie, Switzerland, whatever,
12:31.2
hindi na alam pinagsasabi nila because dapat titignan mo how these systems operate in a certain condition.
12:37.2
Ang conditions sa Pilipinas ay mas malapit sa mga katulad ng Bangladesh, probably,
12:41.2
rather than countries like Switzerland or, I don't know, Germany or whatnot.
12:45.2
So, ito yung mga dapat titignan natin.
12:47.2
Federalism, pag-usapan din natin, Nigeria, for instance.
12:50.1
Or semi-federalism in Iraq, for instance.
12:52.1
Or Brazil, na mas malapit sa atin in terms of their conditions.
12:55.1
Real conditions, trapo politics, et cetera, than, let's say, I don't know, Germany or, I don't know, United States, Canada, whatever.
13:01.1
So, yun ang sinasabi ko, you have to be very critical.
13:04.1
Dapat critical thinking ang ginagamit natin pag pinag-usapan natin itong mga issue na ito,
13:08.1
katulad ng issue ng constitutional change or charter change.
13:11.1
Now, having said all of those things, may mga iba dyan na mukhang ito yung problema ko talaga, mga hameta.
13:18.0
Actually, the other day, kadalo nang sinabi natin, may napublish tayo sa Journal of Democracy,
13:23.0
which is considered as, you know, the leading academic intellectual space for discussing issues relevant to democratization, et cetera.
13:32.0
And mukhang may mga taon dyan na parang they're trying to twist this to make it look as if, you know,
13:38.0
in-endorse natin ng Marcos Jr. and sinasabi natin na he's a fantastic president and everything's going fine and all.
13:44.0
Now, of course, first of all, that means hindi ka nagbasa ng article mismo.
13:48.0
Because, in fact, I use the term reformer, right, in quotation mark.
13:53.0
O yung mga iba na hindi marunong magsulat or hindi nakapag-aral lang mga buti nung tinuturo ng mga basics, di ba?
13:60.0
Pag nilagay mo sa quotation mark, parang quote and quote, parang you're not necessarily saying a statement of truth.
14:07.0
You're putting it out there with some significant caveat, no? Parang, ano, parang DAO or so-called. Yun, right?
14:15.0
Not to mention, kung tinignan niyo yung article,
14:18.0
I went back to my first analysis just after elections kung sabi ko,
14:23.0
Swabe tong presidente natin na ito. I don't think hindi siya maging katulad ni Digong na bara-bara.
14:29.0
But that doesn't mean na he will necessarily follow yung, you know, yung precepts and spirit of its constitution,
14:38.0
which, by the way, toppled yung kanyang pamilya from power, no?
14:42.0
So, in fact, I said that, you know, he could still... So, actually, ang fundamental argument ko, which is turning out very correctly,
14:47.9
is that don't underestimate Marcos Junior. He's far smarter than people assume. He's far more savvy than people assume.
14:53.9
And at the same time, don't expect him to be just tatay style, bara-bara, tatay style, I love China.
14:58.9
All of those, all of those kind of antics and, you know, barangay geopolitics level kind of nonsense, no?
15:05.9
So, in fairness naman sa kanya, that exactly turned out to be correct. So, sabi ko, he's gonna be more balanced in US-China relations
15:11.9
and respond according to defend the Philippines' interests at West Philippine Sea. Boom! Yun ang nangyari yan.
15:16.8
I said na baka sa ilalim niya, there will be some tweaking of the drug war. Boom! Nangyari yan.
15:22.8
And then, of course, last year sinabi natin na potentially, this is like six, seven months ahead, na potentially ma-free na rin si Leyla de Lima. Boom! Nangyari yan.
15:29.8
And then, most importantly, of course, right now is baka maging mas bukas ang itong administration na ito sa International Criminal Court.
15:36.8
And boom! Nangyari yan. Lahat niyan itong nagsapan natin, mga kameta. So, again, I put it in quotation marks because in terms of functional effect,
15:46.9
sobrang mas maganda ang naging kalabasan ng Marcos Jr. administration than A, what was expected of him.
15:52.8
Akala na lahat, gagaya niya yung tatay niya and push towards martial law. And B, akala na iba, he will pick up where Duterte left off.
16:03.8
But that's not what has happened so far. Alright? So, that's very clear. I always said so far. So far. Right? And then, I also made it very clear na pag titignan mo,
16:14.7
a lot of this semi-liberal, supposedly dilawan stuff na ginagawa niya, di ba, yun ang sinasabi ng mga DDS yan.
16:21.7
O, ito, Aquino, 200% Aquino ito or something like that. Zero percent Duterte or whatever. Well, a lot of this is because of also yung nangyaring hidwaan sa UNITY.
16:29.7
Eh, syempre, yung ang kabila, gusto kayo bully, gusto kayo pressure, hindi niyo nirespeto yung pagkapresidente mo at mandato mo, you're gonna push back, right?
16:37.7
So, actually, some of these reforms that happened politically make sense because ito yung reflection ng yung hidwaan din ng UNITY.
16:44.7
Ang nakikita natin sa pagitan ng dalawang higanteng dynasties na yan.
16:48.7
So, I said, there's a lot of ruthless pragmatism and realpolitik also involved here.
16:53.7
But, again, we can have a long debate about intentions.
16:57.7
And I think, when it comes to intentions, part of President Marco Jr. also wants to make sure na ma-fully rehabilitate yung kanyang pamilya,
17:03.7
ma-fully accept sila around the world, life will be better for the next generation, even better than what he has had, hindi maulit sa kanila yung nangyari sa kanya
17:11.7
nung, you know, napatalsik yung kanilang utol.
17:14.7
I mean, so on and so forth, right?
17:16.7
And then, who knows? Maybe there's also part of BBM that wants to leave some sort of decent legacy, especially pagdating sa West Philippine Sea.
17:23.7
Because yun din naman, in fairness, yung legacy na kanyang ama when it comes to fighting against China.
17:27.7
I'm sorry, when it comes to making sure na malakas yung position natin sa West Philippine Sea, yung mga base na nakita natin sa pag-asa, ginawa yun panahon pa lang ng tatay ni BBM, no?
17:36.7
1960s, 70s pa lang may plano na. And 1978, 1977, ito, meron na tayong airstrip dyan sa pag-asa island.
17:44.7
There's also that aspect of the shadow of the father, the legacy of the father, in a good sense.
17:48.7
So, interestingly, some of the good legacies ng kanyang ama ay inulit niya pagdating sa West Philippine Sea, pagdating sa balancing ng mga superpowers.
17:57.7
Pero so far, again, so far, hindi natin nakita any move towards a more authoritarian system or a move towards dictatorship or a move towards consolidating yung democratic erosion or autocratic consolidation na nakita natin sa ilalim ng nakaraan na administration.
18:13.7
Now, having said all of that,
18:14.7
klarong-klaro dito sa article natin, ang sinabi ko, pagdating sa issue ng charter change, it practically makes sense because pag nag-charter change ka, nag-parliamentary ka, pwede mong siguraduin na yung kabila, wala nang chance na makabalik.
18:27.7
Because in a parliamentary system, whatever party with the most number of votes and support, which you can secure in many different ways, ang mangyari dyan is you can put someone there who's not the most charismatic people but someone trusted, right?
18:39.7
And then the president could be more symbolic president but still head of state, katulad ng system.
18:43.6
Sa Italy, for instance, and back in the day in Turkey before Erdogan pushed for certain reforms, right?
18:49.6
Or you could go the French system or the Korean system whereby actually both may prime minister and president pero dominant yung president.
18:59.6
So you can do different things about that.
19:01.6
And if they move towards that kind of parliamentary system, hindi na kailangan naman magkaroon ng elections sa 2028.
19:08.6
So yung mga iba nagsasabi galing sa kabilang kampo, oh lagot kayo sa amin.
19:12.5
Pag buwan lang kami sa 2028, well, pwede naman i-preempt yan.
19:16.5
But as I said, while there's a logic to that, at the same time, huwag natin kalimutan na this could also go wrong.
19:25.5
Na yung process of charter change could be hijacked.
19:28.5
The process of charter change could be producing unintended consequences.
19:32.5
Or it could be, as some say in the opposition, it could be a Trojan horse for injecting all sorts of questionable things and taking out good things.
19:40.4
So ang sinasabi ko dito is, may mga imperfections ng political system natin.
19:46.4
But don't throw out the baby with the bathwater. Throw out the bathwater.
19:50.4
Ang bathwater po ay yung katrapuhan, corruption, lack of sufficient critical thinking in terms of our political culture.
20:02.4
We're never close to where we should be in terms of making sure na we have strong state institutions, independent regulatory bodies.
20:09.3
So yun ang mga kailangan natin. Not to mention, of course, protection of human rights, etc.
20:12.3
So you have to separate the good things from the bad things.
20:16.3
Bad things is corruption, katrapuhan, oligarchs and dynasties dominating our system.
20:20.3
The good things are human rights, democracy, so on and so forth. Yun ang kailangan natin.
20:25.3
Sorry, parang medyo naghalo.
20:28.3
So you have to separate the baby from the bathwater.
20:30.3
So you can do it through amendments or you can do it actually with existing 1997 Constitution.
20:35.3
But we make sure lang the better kind of leaders, less trapo kind of leaders,
20:39.2
keep on winning and we really have a government of best and brightest.
20:42.2
Yung finance minister mo, yung DTI sekretary mo, etc. Ito yung mga best of the best.
20:48.2
So yung po yung tinitignan natin pagdating sa making sure na we move in the right direction pagdating sa...
20:56.2
Kasi tanggap naman natin lahat na may problema talaga sa ating political system.
21:01.2
Ang problema kasi dito is yung iba dyan, tinitwist nila yung issue kaysa they'll point their fingers at the real source of the problem,
21:09.3
kasi yung mga oligarchs, dynasties, etc. They're gonna point it at etsa, puwera, dilawan, human rights, etc.
21:15.2
When in fact, this is not backed up by evidence. Alam naman natin na...
21:21.2
Katulad ng sinabi ko, katulad ng sinabi ko parate, you cannot fix a problem kung yung fixer mo yun yung problema mo.
21:27.2
Kung yung tao na gusto mag-ayos ng problema, siya pa yung may pakanan, siya pa yung ugat ng problema.
21:33.2
So again, in theory, I am for constitutional amendments, constitutional change, but under the right conditions.
21:38.1
The right condition means you can trust that people are gonna oversee the process of constitutional change
21:43.1
and pwede natin ni-scrutinize yung process of transition para siguraduin natin na this cha-cha is for the best of the country.
21:50.1
Hindi ako against constitutional amendments and charter change per se, but meron tayong mga caveats.
21:57.1
Because if you don't have the right analysis and you don't do it under the right conditions, pwede ma-hijack ito or even worse.
22:04.1
Or even if maganda yung intentions, there's something called the law of an intention.
22:08.1
Intended consequences. Because there's always something that you're not gonna foresee.
22:12.1
There are gonna be certain problems that you're not gonna foresee. So I'll give you an example.
22:16.1
So yung isang ginawa natin for instance was, isa sa problema sa 1997 Constitution is wala silang implementing rules and regulations
22:25.1
for enforcing anti-dynasty provisions of the Philippine Constitution. Nevertheless, may tinatawag na term limits.
22:34.1
So hindi ka pwede maging senador forever, after two terms you have to step down.
22:37.0
After three terms, you have to step down from Congress.
22:39.0
Now, I'll explain to you what is the law of unintended consequence.
22:41.0
The law of unintended consequence is this. Hindi na-anticipate ng mga ibang tao na actually ang mangyari dito is you're potentially making dynastic politics worse.
22:51.0
Because what has actually happened, and this is not what was intended, is this. Pag naka-two term na yung isa or naka-three term na yung isa, right?
22:60.0
Three term especially doon sa LGU level or Congressional level, ang nilalagay nila dyan yung asawa nila.
23:07.0
Hindi ka magva-violate ng term limits, right? So you're technically legal. You're following the law.
23:13.0
But at the same time, you're incentivizing the creation of political dynasties.
23:19.0
Because you did not create the condition to make sure na after yung two term or three term, whatever, ni mayor, senador, whatever,
23:25.0
may laban yung mga ibang alternatives para silang pwede mag-replace sa kanya. So what happens is kung itong congressman or itong governor in power for two, three terms,
23:34.9
sisiguraduin niya na once mag-hit na siya doon sa term limit niya, sisiguraduin niya na pwede mananalo yung kanyang asawa or anak o mag-anak or whatever,
23:45.9
once hindi na siya pwede tumakbo ulit. And then of course, meron din tayong situation kung saan, nags-switch.
23:52.9
So yung tatay, mayor-mayor, yung anak, vice president, and then nag-term limit, bumaba yung tatay, umakyat yung anak. Well, you know, we can name drop. Andami mga ganyan.
24:02.8
So this is what you call a law of unintended consequence. Because in fairness, maganda yung intention, maganda yung intention ng yung mga nag-push for term limits, right?
24:13.9
But dahil na hijack ito, it actually made the dynasty problem in the Philippines worse. So what you actually need is a new set of laws and rules that make sure na maging competitive yung electoral landscape,
24:27.8
make sure na walang vote buying, and make sure na may chance yung mga iba na pwede mag-replace.
24:32.8
dun sa mga dynasties or kung sino kung matapos yung termina niya yung office, right? So you're not creating conditions for competitive elections, right? So that's one thing.
24:40.9
The other thing correctly also pointed out here is yung, ayan, si Walt ba yun or something, sinabi nila yung issue ng party list. Again, party list is another good example of law of unintended consequences.
24:50.9
So kung tinignan mo yung party list system, parang tinanggap na nila na pagdating sa mga congressional races, good luck kung ikaw ay galing sa grassroots movements
25:02.8
manggagawa, et cetera, because ang kalaban mo dyan yung mga malalaking trapo at saka dynasties na billion-billion yung kanilang budget. So halos hopeless case yan, di ba?
25:10.8
It's very, very hard na talunin mo yung mga warlords and dynasties in a normal congressional race, for instance.
25:16.8
So what the party list did was nag-reserve sila ng certain number of seat dun sa mga marginalized group, and then sila-sila na lang na maglaban, and then depending on proportion of ilan ng vote ang napanalo nila out of the total vote for party list,
25:32.7
magkakaroon ng proportioning. So kunyari, ma-allocate ka ng tatlong seats kung ikaw yung may pinakamalaking vote at certain percentage of total vote of party list.
25:44.7
But here comes the law of undeaded consequence. Narealize nung ibang trapo and dynasties na, wait lang, parang mas mura pa kung maging party list congressman ka kaysa congressional congressman.
25:56.7
At nakita nila, maraming mga grassroots group dun, they managed to get one seat, two seats, or even three seats.
26:02.7
With limited expenses and all, as long as they could mobilize a certain number of votes, 100,000, 200,000, 300,000, some up to 1 million, especially mga progressive, mga kabayan blocking, mga ganyan type of people.
26:11.7
Now, what happened here is, also partly thanks to our Supreme Court, yung definition ng kung ano yung marginalized group, and more importantly, ang definition ng kung sinong pwede mag-represent ng marginalized group ay naging masyadong relaxed.
26:28.7
So ngayon, meron kang sitwasyon kung saan, isang dating congressman na kongresyon,
26:32.8
ang sasabihin niya, may malasakit ako sa mga, I don't know, magsasaka, or mga ingisda, or sa, I don't know, security guards, or sa mga taga-probinsya namin,
26:41.7
so gagawa kami ng party list, party list ng mga ganitong tribo, or party list ng mga ganitong manggagawa, di ba?
26:49.7
But, yung nagre-represent sa kanila, because may Supreme Court ruling tayo na hindi naman kailangan, kung ikaw yung congressman, ikaw yung party list representative ng isang party list na sabihin natin para sa mga manggagawa,
27:02.7
you don't necessarily need to be a farmer yourself.
27:05.5
As long as you just prove that in general, as long as you prove that in general, meron kang malasakit, meron kang involvement, at, you know, alam mo naman natin yan.
27:15.7
I don't think it's, so binaba mo yung threshold ng who can represent marginalized groups, and then yung definition mo na also marginalized ay sobrang malawak na.
27:26.5
So ang outcome ngayon is, yung party list system has become a cheaper way for the same dynasties and trapos to,
27:32.7
to get back into power, and making the situation even worse.
27:37.9
So again, this is another case of unintended consequences.
27:41.2
Kausap ko kayo lahat, makinig lang kayo sa akin, tatlo yung kausap ko, tatlong mga screen dito, okay?
27:45.7
So, I can go on and on with many cases of law of unintended consequences.
27:50.0
I'll give you another example also.
27:52.3
So, for instance, katulad ng sinabi natin kanina, dahil sobrang bankrupt yung country natin, more than $25 billion yung debt natin nung bumaksak yung rehimen ng dictatorship,
28:02.7
at wala tayong pera nung 1980s, late 1980s.
28:06.9
So, ang nangyayari is, nung nanala si Ramos, dahil puro may utang yung mga government agencies,
28:13.3
dahil wala silang sapat na resources na patakpuin yung mga, ano, to run yung mga major-major sectors, etc.,
28:22.7
pinaprivatize na lang nila.
28:24.3
Because the idea was there is you privatize it and give it to, I don't know, private sector, mas efficient ng private sector, mas magaling ang private sector, blah blah blah, right?
28:31.6
All of the new liberal stuff.
28:32.7
The problem, though, is that yung proseso ng privatization ay madali i-hijack yan sa mga developing countries kung saan mahinang scrutiny, mahinang state institution.
28:43.3
So, pwede ang gawin mo dyan is yung bidding process, i-ano mo yan, lalaroin mo yan, diba?
28:49.3
So, eventually what happened is that during the privatization, lumakas lalo yung mga old economic oligarchs because they were able to be recipients of big state-owned enterprises
28:57.7
or key critical infrastructure sectors during the privatization process.
29:01.5
So, again, maganda yung intention to push it to the private sector para mas maganda yung efficiency and delivery and all, pero nakita natin na hijack yung process.
29:09.6
So, the Philippines is full of, full of yung mga ganitong sitwasyon kung saan maganda yung intention yung mga ibang tao.
29:17.2
Like, for instance, nung na-introduce ng demokrasi sa Pilipinas ng panahon ng mga Amerikana, hindi naman totoong demokrasi kasi colonized pa rin tayo,
29:23.6
pero yung semi-commonwealth, semi-democratic, ang problema naman dyan is that automatically actually ensured na malakas yung mga,
29:31.3
hasyenderos, landed elite, and mga oligarchs because sila lang may kakayaan na nung una bumoto,
29:37.4
pero sila rin ang may kakayaan na bumili ng boto at tumakbo para sa mga matataas na mga opisina.
29:43.2
Kaya nakikita natin 1920s, 1930s pa lang, yung mga hasyenderos and landed elite ay nag-dominate nung ating senado, kongres, etc.
29:50.0
And that reality has not changed for a very long time.
29:53.3
So, kailangan ba natin ng tsatsa para ayusin yan?
29:56.4
Or pag magtsatsa ba tayo, maayos ba yan?
30:00.1
Or kung magtsatsa,
30:01.3
magtsatsa tayo sa ilalim ng isang kongreso na purong andyan ng mga dynasties at tingin nyo ba masolve yung problema ng dynasties?
30:06.8
Do you get what I'm saying?
30:07.4
So, yun ang sinasabi ko eh.
30:09.0
Ang problema kasi ng iba dyan,
30:10.9
they muddy the water.
30:13.1
They create all of this confusion.
30:16.1
And then they give all of this simplistic stuff para hindi ma-analyze ng tao ano ba talagang problema.
30:20.3
Parang ganito yan eh.
30:21.5
Kung wala kang kwentang driver,
30:23.3
kahit anong kotse ay bigay sa'yo,
30:25.2
lalong hindi gaganda yung situation.
30:28.1
In fact, kung hindi ka magaling na driver,
30:29.9
tapos bibigyan ka na mas mabilis pa na,
30:31.3
baka lalong ano, diba?
30:33.9
So, the problem is the driver, not the car.
30:37.0
The car can be proved.
30:38.6
Sure, I'm for amendments,
30:40.2
I'm for, you know, some...
30:42.1
Pero mas problema natin dito yung driver eh.
30:44.4
Yun po yung problema.
30:46.5
kung pro-cha-cha kayo charter change,
30:48.1
sigurado yun din nyo
30:49.0
na yung mga tao ng sumusulong nito
30:52.1
ay may interest talaga ng bayan.
30:55.1
Or mapakatiwalaan natin.
30:57.7
Or at least, medyo gets nila
30:59.4
ano ba talagang kailangan ng ating bansa.
31:01.3
Yun lang sinasabi natin dito eh.
31:03.1
So again, I'm not against charter change.
31:04.9
I'm definitely not against constitutional amendments.
31:07.3
Including amendments of certain
31:08.8
provisions of our constitutions
31:10.7
that prevents investments.
31:13.0
Supposedly, we can have a long debate about that.
31:15.2
But actually, I'll tell you what.
31:16.8
Another problem with cha-cha is that
31:18.2
is it even necessary?
31:19.3
Because sa ilalim ng nakaraan na
31:22.4
Kongreso at Senado,
31:23.6
they pass at least three different new laws
31:26.2
to make us economically more competitive
31:29.4
and to open certain
31:31.3
sectors to foreign investments.
31:35.3
dahil maraming makulit dyan
31:36.4
na gusto nila cha-cha,
31:37.8
hindi na pasa yung implementing
31:40.0
rules and regulations on time.
31:41.8
So delayed yung implementation,
31:44.5
na dapat tumulong sa atin
31:45.8
para gawin mas madali
31:47.0
ang foreign investments.
31:48.5
So my solution to that is,
31:50.6
let's work with what you got.
31:52.5
Don't try to reinvent the wheel
31:54.3
and make it worse.
31:55.5
Let's see how those laws operate.
31:57.8
Improve the conditions for investments.
32:00.1
And then, pwede natin pag-usapit
32:01.3
ng 2, 3, 4, 5 years
32:02.3
if kailangan talaga ng total charter change
32:04.5
para pagandahin yung ating ekonomiya.
32:07.0
Last time I checked,
32:08.1
actually, ang ekonomiya natin
32:09.4
ay isa sa mga pinakamabilis sa mundo.
32:12.3
Especially dito sa ASEAN at ASHA.
32:14.7
Ang problema natin is,
32:15.9
hindi well-distributed yung income.
32:18.5
Ang problema natin is,
32:20.0
hindi tayo nag-attract
32:20.9
ng high-quality investments.
32:23.0
Cha-cha pang sagot dyan?
32:24.1
Or actually, trade policy,
32:26.0
industrial policy,
32:27.6
less corruption, less dynasties.
32:30.1
So, yun yung sinasabi,
32:31.2
yung mga iba na simplistic mag-isip,
32:35.3
parang ganyan talaga.
32:36.0
Parating sinasabi,
32:36.9
si Jordan, Michael Jordan,
32:40.6
nakadlabas yung dila.
32:42.0
So, parang sinabi,
32:42.7
pag ginaya natin,
32:43.6
nilabas din natin yung dila
32:44.6
nating nagshoot tayo
32:45.4
kasi galing tayo ni Michael Jordan.
32:46.7
Parang ganyan kamababaw
32:48.5
yung argument na iba dyan na
32:49.7
gaya lang natin yung saligang batas
32:51.5
ng ibang ganyan kong bansa
32:52.4
maging katulad tayo ng mga bansang yan.
32:54.4
Kasi you're not looking at
32:55.2
law of unintended consequences.
32:56.3
You're not looking at proper causality.
32:58.6
Ang dahilan ba talaga
32:59.7
na hindi nag-invest masyado
33:00.7
yung iba dyan sa Pilipinas
33:01.7
ay dahil ba sa saligang batas natin
33:05.1
dun sa napakamahalang electricity,
33:08.0
napakahina infrastructure.
33:10.3
the solution is actually
33:11.0
something more fundamental.
33:12.8
So, we can go on and on and on.
33:14.4
I think all of us can agree na
33:16.8
the fact that only 40 families
33:20.1
in the Philippines
33:21.8
of newly created growth,
33:22.7
the fact that 80%
33:24.7
or whatever natin
33:25.3
ay dominated ng mga dynasties.
33:27.1
So, tanggap natin
33:28.0
yun yung problema, di ba?
33:29.3
Kung hindi mo tanggap
33:30.2
yun ang problema,
33:31.3
Baka siguro dynastica
33:34.2
Now, having accepted that,
33:35.4
the next question is
33:36.3
does Chacha solve that problem
33:37.9
or actually make it worse?
33:40.1
at the very least,
33:40.8
it's just a distraction
33:41.5
from the real problem.
33:44.6
thank you very much
33:50.1
Thank you very much
33:50.6
for that discussion.
33:53.1
yun ang problema kasi
33:55.0
hindi nakikinig sa atin.
33:59.3
different formats.
34:01.4
journal articles,
34:03.7
So, kung hindi kayo
34:06.1
magmamagaling dyan
34:06.9
kasi isi-shutdown ko lang
34:08.0
yung mga nonsense
34:08.7
na counter-arguments dyan
34:09.8
na walang basihan.
34:11.3
At ma-expose lang
34:12.7
hindi kayo nagbabasa
34:13.5
or baka hater lang kayo
34:15.2
at ibang problema na yan.
34:17.6
thank you very much.
34:18.3
Maraming salamat sa lahat
34:19.0
mga nagbamahal sa atin,
34:20.2
nagfo-follow sa atin,
34:21.2
new followers natin
34:24.1
tuloy-tuloy lang laban
34:26.4
Maraming salamat.
34:28.4
and talk to you soon.
