00:37.1
So data after data shows that it looks like, you know,
00:41.1
when it comes to bilateral trade relations, which, by the way,
00:43.4
increasingly benefits China more than us.
00:45.0
They're far more exporting to us than us exporting.
00:47.6
They're earning way more from us than we from the...
00:50.7
It looks like it's almost agnostic.
00:52.5
It's geopolitically agnostic.
00:54.4
It is not sensitive to...
00:57.0
to any kind of, you know, geopolitical shock.
01:01.6
So this whole myth that if you're nice to China, you'll get huge investments,
01:06.2
which is the next question.
01:07.7
Okay, trade, it looks like it's not...
01:10.4
There's no strong correlation whatsoever with geopolitics.
01:13.3
Investment, maybe, there's some correlation.
01:15.9
But Duterte was super nice to them and yet got no high-quality big-ticket infrastructure investments.
01:20.7
Where is the Bandung-Jakarta Railway Project?
01:22.7
Where is the Mindanao Railway Project?
01:24.6
You know, like our version of Bandung-Jakarta.
01:26.3
Where is the Mindanao Railway Project?
01:26.5
Where is the Bandung-Jakarta Railway Project?
01:26.6
Where is the Bandung-Jakarta Railway Project?
01:26.9
Where is the Bandung-Jakarta Railway Project?
01:26.9
Where is the Bandung-Jakarta Railway Project?
01:27.0
Where is the Clark Railway Project?
01:28.8
None of them came in, and please don't talk about some small bridge
01:31.6
that, you know, enrich a few Chinese contractors
01:34.7
sitting there somewhere in Pasig, Pasay, whatever.
01:37.3
That's not a big-ticket infrastructure project.
01:39.2
Please increase...
01:40.1
Medyo taas nyo naman yung standards, you know.
01:42.0
So my point, and your point is,
01:45.0
the hypocrisy of this argument is that
01:47.0
when it comes to United States,
01:49.5
US is actually a big source of trade and investment and jobs,
01:53.4
and yet they're not worried when Duterte attacked them and said,
01:56.0
let's end our lives.
01:56.9
Can you expand on that?
01:58.2
Okay, I'll go back yung point na to.
02:00.3
Kasi the biggest investor in ASEAN,
02:03.4
FDIs, is the United States, right?
02:07.0
So if we are concerned,
02:08.3
yung argument that we should be nice to countries
02:11.3
that have economic leverage over us,
02:13.9
why doesn't that apply toward the United States?
02:16.5
The United States is a source of many high-paying,
02:19.1
high-quality jobs here in the Philippines.
02:21.7
A lot of itong mga multinational companies
02:25.8
which is one of the biggest,
02:26.8
high-tech sectors in the Philippine economy,
02:28.6
these are American companies.
02:30.5
And yet, we weren't worried when,
02:32.6
during the Duterte administration,
02:34.6
Duterte was flat out making very ridiculous statements like,
02:40.4
it's the Philippines, Russia, and China against the world.
02:44.0
We are turning away from the United States.
02:46.9
Kung ikaw talaga, you love the Philippines,
02:49.0
and you want us to have good relations
02:51.1
with all of our important economic partners,
02:54.5
then why is it that they are not calling for,
02:56.8
or that kind of restraint
02:58.2
when it comes to the U.S. or to Japan?
03:01.6
And in fact, it is even the opposite.
03:03.8
Not only don't they care about it,
03:06.2
they will actively agitate against the United States.
03:10.8
that is really what a lot of the Duterte supporters,
03:13.0
frankly, the Duterte supporters right now are doing.
03:15.3
Talagang very anti-U.S.
03:18.8
what benefit does it give the Philippines
03:21.3
when you do that?
03:24.7
And that's where my point comes in.
03:28.4
they're indirectly saying that,
03:30.1
well, U.S. is a democracy.
03:31.7
I mean, of course,
03:32.1
we can have a debate about horrible interventions.
03:34.8
because U.S. is a democracy,
03:35.9
they're willing to tolerate pushback by the Philippines.
03:38.9
But the other one is a dictatorship.
03:40.4
So, like a gangster,
03:41.7
if you don't follow them,
03:42.9
there's going to be consequences, my friend.
03:45.0
You know what I'm saying?
03:45.8
Like, you know what I'm saying?
03:46.7
So, they're actually,
03:49.8
contributing to otherization of China.
03:54.1
I mean, Duterte also kept on doing that.
03:56.1
if we assert our West Philippine Sea,
03:58.0
they will go to war to us.
03:59.2
And you mga Chinese, like,
04:00.4
no, we're not like that.
04:01.5
We're not going to invade you for disagreement.
04:03.7
We have disagreement with Vietnam.
04:06.4
if we're being realistic about it,
04:07.9
I give a bad name to China,
04:09.0
these propagandist people.
04:10.5
If we're being realistic about it,
04:11.9
you showed the graph,
04:12.9
the parang agnostic nga to geopolitical situation,
04:16.3
yung economic footprint ng China
04:18.4
with the Philippines,
04:19.6
yung bilateral trade natin.
04:22.0
respetuhin naman natin yung Philippines na,
04:24.0
the reason why Chinese businesses
04:26.1
here in the Philippines,
04:27.5
is because there's money to be made.
04:29.8
There is an economic logic to that.
04:31.5
And that economic logic
04:33.6
ng policy ng administration.
04:37.5
China is only investing in the Philippines
04:39.6
because the Duterte family
04:41.2
has good relations with them.
04:43.8
that's a preposterous,
04:44.9
that's a preposterous argument
04:46.2
that they're only investing here
04:47.7
if they have good relations with,
04:49.5
with the current president.
04:50.6
Ganun ka-importante
04:51.6
ang presidente ng Pilipinas,
04:53.9
that the market will move
04:55.0
with the president.
04:56.1
I don't think so.
04:56.6
That's very unlikely.
04:57.3
That's what Marcos says, right?
04:58.8
I need to travel around the world,
05:00.7
sell the country,
05:01.5
and then bumaba pa yung FDI
05:02.8
after all his Magellan Juniors.
05:05.4
That's another topic.
05:08.3
No, but that's my point, eh.
05:09.8
Yun ang unit team nila,
05:12.0
have this myth of the great.
05:14.2
They're going there
05:15.1
and moving global markets.
05:16.6
Well, guess what?
05:18.6
It doesn't work that way.
05:21.0
I advise Wall Street hedge funds,
05:24.2
They're not idiots.
05:24.9
They have their own restrictions.
05:26.1
They talk to people like me
05:27.5
who know what's happening.
05:28.4
You think they're gonna
05:28.9
listen to a speech
05:30.0
by BBM and Digong
05:31.8
You think Chinese businessmen
05:33.6
are just gonna listen
05:34.4
to some incoherent speech
05:36.4
and decide they're gonna go...
05:37.6
It doesn't work that way.
05:39.2
It's far more complicated.
05:41.2
Let's respect the businessmen.
05:43.0
They're not idiots.
05:43.8
They're smart people.
05:48.3
Sorry, if ever lang nawala.
05:50.8
on the part of Sarah Duterte,
05:52.7
her silence was something dangerous, right?
05:55.6
it may create some
05:57.0
perverse expectations by China.
06:01.0
encouraging China
06:03.2
in domestic affairs
06:04.1
because they may think,
06:05.2
I'm not saying that's the case,
06:06.5
but they may think
06:07.3
that they may have
06:08.3
their person here
06:09.4
in the Philippines
06:10.0
ahead of 2020 election.
06:11.5
They may get some ideas
06:13.3
Manchurian candidate dito
06:15.0
here in the Philippines,
06:16.7
which is a very valid problem.
06:18.5
going back to yung
06:21.7
whatever Sarah Duterte
06:23.6
is doing right now,
06:27.5
she becomes president,
06:28.5
which is her goal anyway,
06:30.9
for what kind of president
06:32.1
she's going to be.
06:35.6
talking all about
06:39.8
and talking about
06:41.0
the Afghan refugee issue
06:45.9
by the United States.
06:48.5
na she can actually
06:50.0
talk about defense affairs
06:51.3
and she can extend
06:52.4
political capital
06:58.5
any of her positions
06:59.7
on the South China Sea issue
07:03.5
to the Philippines,
07:05.9
there are two approaches
07:07.9
I would respect her
07:10.1
a dignified silence
07:13.5
She doesn't talk about
07:14.9
any security issue
07:17.3
to the president.
07:19.9
if you look at it,
07:21.8
during the last administration,
07:23.2
si Vice President
07:24.5
had the same approach
07:26.9
Duterte's foreign policy.
07:30.8
at times talagang
07:34.8
with the United States,
07:37.9
Visiting Forces Agreement
07:39.1
although hindi yun
07:39.7
nangyari in the end.
07:41.6
very threatening things
07:45.5
all of those things.
07:47.4
yung ganong decorum
07:49.1
should be established
07:49.9
among vice presidents,
07:51.3
especially one that
07:52.1
would like to become
07:52.8
president in the future.
07:54.5
have that decorum.
07:56.7
want to insist on
07:58.2
defense and security issues,
08:01.5
things that matter
08:06.5
Because right now,
08:07.2
what she's doing is
08:08.1
she's messaging China
08:11.5
they can distract
08:13.7
domestic political disputes
08:17.1
so that the country
08:19.2
the West-Philippine Sea issue.
08:21.1
That we are divided
08:22.1
amongst ourselves
08:23.0
and that's a very wrong
08:26.1
Because right now,
08:26.7
yung ginagawa niya
08:27.5
that she's being quiet
08:32.8
water cannon na tayo
08:33.8
involving the AFP
08:36.7
wala pa rin siyang statement,
08:38.2
you're actually sending
08:39.0
a message to China,
08:41.7
regardless of what you do.
08:43.9
And that's a wrong message
08:44.9
to send to China.
08:46.6
if you want to have
08:47.4
a genuinely independent
08:57.5
to how you behave
09:01.8
at the world stage level.
09:03.5
We don't reciprocate
09:04.6
things na hindi naman
09:06.2
binibigay sa atin
09:13.9
unreciprocated love.
09:17.8
Cheesy as it sounds.
09:23.9
China has not been
09:24.3
reciprocated that
09:27.1
in military postures.
09:30.2
Let me correct you.
09:31.0
Maybe not reciprocated
09:33.2
of the Philippines
09:34.7
on certain other level
09:36.3
there was a reciprocation
09:37.3
we're not aware of.
09:45.1
to address that point.
09:52.8
Pero yun nga yung point eh.
09:54.9
koalisyon ni Marcos na yun.
09:59.1
that don't benefit
10:01.4
China investments.
10:08.2
in the Philippines.
10:09.6
because of that strategy,
10:11.1
very transactional
10:12.0
approach ng China,
10:14.1
the entire Philippines
10:17.1
what does it tell you
10:18.0
about the China policy
10:19.7
That China policy
10:20.8
in the Philippines
10:24.2
on divide and conquer.
10:27.0
Because China knows
10:27.8
that it cannot win
10:30.1
Talagang yung mga
10:30.9
public opinion polls
10:32.8
repeatedly tell you
10:39.6
that already tells us
10:40.6
a lot about the nature
10:41.6
of Chinese economic
10:43.8
in the Philippines.
10:46.3
go to war with them
10:48.0
really ridiculous
10:48.8
escalatory actions
10:52.7
that yun daw yung
10:57.6
China and so forth.
11:00.4
that's not really
11:02.3
that fundamentally,
11:05.1
stand up to China,
11:08.9
credible deterrence,
11:10.6
it doesn't happen
11:28.2
We should maintain
11:29.3
good relations with them.
11:33.5
government officials
11:34.4
in the Philippines
11:36.2
It's not that easy,
11:37.5
Kung ganun siya kadali
11:38.4
that we just have
11:39.2
good relations with China
11:41.5
all of our problems
11:43.2
are going to be resolved,
11:47.0
had peaceful relations
11:55.9
security concerns
11:58.5
And what does it tell you,
11:59.8
Just for the viewer.
12:01.9
yung problems natin
12:07.3
Kasi kung cyclical
12:09.1
it can be resolved
12:11.4
It can be resolved
12:12.1
by changing the policy
12:13.3
of the administration.
12:14.8
Eh, nakita na nga natin,
12:15.8
magpalit ka ng policy,
12:17.2
Duterte to Marcos,
12:19.2
Aquino to Duterte,
12:22.4
harassment in the
12:33.0
which was recently
12:39.8
what does that tell you?
12:40.8
I think we need to have
12:41.7
a very consistent
12:43.8
and it needs to be
12:46.9
defense and security
12:52.3
Hindi ako agree dyan sa
12:53.4
narrative na yan na
12:55.1
you just need to be
12:56.5
friendly with them
12:58.3
All of our problems
12:59.1
will be resolved.
13:00.3
ridiculous approach
13:02.0
to foreign policy.
13:02.8
And the question is,
13:03.7
okay, operationally,
13:04.6
what are you saying?
13:05.6
Let's just give away
13:06.7
Second Thomas Shaw?
13:08.6
like you push them,
13:14.2
they cannot say that,
13:16.6
motherhood statement.
13:17.3
Motherhood statement
13:18.1
is not a national
13:20.0
security doctrine.
13:21.5
it's just like saying,
13:28.5
of tourism should,
13:32.9
It's a tourism slogan.
13:34.7
Thank you so much,
13:36.7
for the fantastic
13:38.5
Really appreciate it
13:39.3
and looking forward
13:39.8
for the rest of our gang
13:41.9
and discuss more of this.
