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00:00.0
Let's get more from political analyst Richard Hedarian, joining me from Manila.
00:04.8
Richard, there have been confrontations between Chinese and Filipino vessels in the same area before,
00:10.5
but is what we have seen over the weekend an escalation?
00:17.0
Well, actually what happened over the weekend was a kind of a double whammy crisis
00:21.3
because on one hand, you had Chinese boats, water canoning, a vessel that in this case
00:28.7
actually had no less than the former spokesman and now the chief of the armed forces of the Philippines on board.
00:35.2
So if an incident had happened there, if the Philippine military chief was injured,
00:41.0
then we could have looked at a very perilous situation.
00:43.9
At the same time, there was a Christmas convoy of a civil society group aboard a civilian vessel
00:50.0
which was supposed to go into the area in order to show its support and solidarity with the Filipino soldiers
00:55.8
and to somehow support the Philippine claims.
00:58.7
In the area, that boat was actually intimidated by a number of Chinese warships,
01:03.8
not just Coast Guard vessels or militia, but warships.
01:07.0
So you had two incidents at the same time happening over the weekend.
01:10.0
And it's clear, China is trying to signal to the Philippines that it is willing to take the initiative,
01:16.5
it is willing to risk the armed conflict,
01:19.0
and it's also challenging the United States in terms of its alliance commitments to the Philippines.
01:23.3
How does Manila plan to manage this increasingly adversarial relationship with China?
01:28.7
Given that China is the Philippines' largest trading partner as well?
01:34.4
Well, I mean, China is the largest trading partner of a lot of countries in the region.
01:37.7
It doesn't say really much because, in fact, China earns more out of its trade with the Philippines than the other way around.
01:43.1
It's really investment that matters, high-quality investment, and that's something that did not come.
01:47.0
We didn't have a debt trap with China. We had a pledge trap.
01:49.6
China promised $24 billion in investments to previous President Rodrigo Duterte.
01:54.9
Really, not much came in, and not to mention the militarization and harassment
01:58.7
in the South China Sea continued.
02:00.1
Now, as far as the Philippines is concerned, it wants a good relationship with China,
02:04.8
but it doesn't want that under conditions of subjugation.
02:07.6
It wants to negotiate with China a potential compromise, but from a position of strength.
02:12.5
So, under President Marco Jr., the Philippines has been doubling down its alliances
02:15.8
and its presence in the area in order to have that leverage and better position of negotiation.
02:21.1
Briefly, Richard, speaking of this position of strength,
02:23.4
what is the extent to which the Philippines is prepared to go to defend its claims in the South China Sea?
02:28.7
Well, I think the Philippines is really risking the potential direct conflict with China at the current rate,
02:36.7
but it's just defending its own sovereign rights.
02:39.5
So, I mean, we have a lot of gaslighting of the Philippines as if the Philippines is the ojuan provocateur,
02:43.7
but it's not the Philippines claiming 80-85% of the entire South China Sea basin.
02:47.4
This second Thomas Shoal is a low-tide elevation within the Philippine waters exclusive economic zone.
02:51.6
No one else can claim it. It is an extension of the Philippine exclusive economic zone,
02:54.8
and the Philippines is not alone. Not only the United States, Japan, Australia,
02:58.7
European partners, but new partners like India are also increasingly assisting the Philippines
03:03.0
to have a better position of strength when it comes to dealing with China.
03:07.1
Always a pleasure talking to you, Richard. Thanks so much for today.
