00:48.2
And in fact, a few months ago, I was just thinking, you know, let's just make a recommendation about this new analyst and all.
00:53.0
You know, next thing I know, the responses were very positive.
00:56.8
Just in case may mga weird people na nag-add sa inyo, baka ako may kasalanan.
01:00.0
So, I just felt it's time, you know, to get the ball rolling, to work together and to make sure the spotlight covers everyone and all great ideas.
01:09.7
And I notice all of you gentlemen, of course, we'll have more inclusivity down the road.
01:15.4
This is just the first effort is, you know, all of you have had backgrounds in governments or are still in government or are advising the government perhaps informally.
01:24.0
So, it's not like we're just armchair people.
01:25.9
We have had direct interaction with the government and sometimes as policymakers or policy advisors.
01:30.0
We have had direct interaction with the government and sometimes as policymakers or policy advisors in different capacity throughout different administration.
01:33.4
Having said that, thank you very much again for joining us.
01:36.0
Let's go one by one.
01:37.4
Yung pamak muna natin, yung isa na nasa gobyerno pa rin.
01:40.5
Sir Mico, maybe a bit of background about you, Sir Mico.
01:44.4
I mean, how did you get involved in the West Philippine Sea analysis?
01:47.3
How did you get to turn the whole West Philippine Sea issue?
01:50.2
Can you tell us a little bit about that?
01:52.5
Thank you, Sir Professor, and good evening to my colleagues, Joshua and Justin.
01:58.5
So, I got, I started to be interested here in the South China Sea in around 2012 when the Scarborough Show incident happened.
02:08.8
I was still in college then.
02:10.5
So, my bachelor's degree is political science.
02:14.4
And as all of you know, political science is a lot of branches.
02:17.2
I decided to focus on international relations.
02:20.3
And then after graduation, I got employed at the National Defense College of the Philippines.
02:25.6
At the time, during the Aquino administration.
02:28.5
So, the issue then, as it is now, is still among the top foreign policy challenges of the country.
02:36.0
So, I decided to focus my research on the South China Sea issue.
02:41.4
Got myself published in a number of publications.
02:45.4
Most of my writings are about the South China Sea.
02:47.6
And then, after I obtained my master's degree from UP Diliban,
02:53.7
my master's thesis is also partially about the South China Sea as well.
02:58.5
I got an opportunity to teach at De La Salle and UST.
03:03.2
I also did different lectures in the South China Sea issues.
03:07.1
Got to talk to policymakers.
03:09.0
Being an ECPSA think tank of the Defense Department,
03:13.8
I tried to focus most of my research there.
03:19.4
And now, as a military officer, as a core professor of the Armed Forces of the Philippines,
03:28.5
I still focus my research on those issues.
03:32.5
So, that's a brief background.
03:34.0
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity again.
03:36.5
We'll do more marites about your work and all of that short of getting you fired later on.
03:41.7
Thank you so much for getting the ball rolling.
03:44.6
Mr. Justin Bacizal, can you also share a little bit about your background
03:47.5
and how you got into the business?
03:49.9
I know you guys are also quite...
03:51.3
You made some waves also in the Shangri-La dialogue not long ago.
03:55.0
Along with another good friend of ours, the commander J.
03:58.9
So, you're from Hawaii, so Singapore.
04:01.2
Can you give us some idea about the whole drama
04:03.0
and how did you arrive at where you are today?
04:07.1
Actually, I started working on West Philippine Sea issues more than 10 years ago.
04:12.5
So, aftermath is also same as Mico,
04:14.5
nung Scarborough Shoal standoff.
04:16.7
So, 2012 was really talagang historical marker for us.
04:20.8
So, after war, the Philippines filed a case against China, right,
04:24.8
with the arbitral tribunal.
04:28.5
we developed an organization called the National Movement for the West Philippine Sea
04:32.5
which focused particularly on
04:34.5
basically talagang building up support
04:37.9
and explaining to the people why we had to file a case with China
04:42.0
at a time when people were very skeptical
04:44.1
of the merits of filing that case to begin with in 2015.
04:49.2
And then, of course, 10 years later, I'm still in the same organization.
04:52.8
I'm the vice president for external affairs.
04:54.5
So, I'm trying to build up the network for that organization.
04:58.1
It's a global movement now.
05:00.6
We have members in Pag-asa Island.
05:02.9
So, they're directly affected by them.
05:05.4
Tutulungan namin yung mga bata sa Pag-asa Island.
05:09.7
We give them donations for school supplies.
05:12.7
And, you know, every time they have a graduation,
05:14.4
we also make sure that we show support to them
05:19.1
para magkaroon ng effective human presence in the area.
05:22.4
And then, in between all of that,
05:23.9
I work in the government first with the office of the president.
05:26.5
Under the tiny president, Duterte.
05:29.6
And then, of course, I moved to the Department of National Defense.
05:33.2
So, in both cases, I was doing strategic assessments and planning.
05:38.1
So, that's my background on the West Philippine Sea issue.
05:41.9
Okay. We'll go back to Duterte later on in your time there.
05:46.9
We have a lot to discuss.
05:50.6
Hindi Espanya, Espeña.
05:52.1
Just to be clear about it.
05:55.5
How did you arrive at this?
05:56.6
I mean, of course, the first time we met is when you kindly made sundo to me
06:00.2
to give a talk dun sa...
06:01.7
So, you used to be in the AFP, right?
06:03.2
Can you give us a little bit about it?
06:05.4
Buti naman naalala mo pa yun.
06:07.0
Akala ko nakalimutan mo na.
06:10.3
Maritest ako, ha?
06:12.7
I started my work back in 2017 as an educator, actually.
06:21.1
Napaka-striking ng question.
06:22.7
Sir, tinanong ako ng student ko.
06:26.5
Visually, ito yung mga walang pake, actually.
06:30.0
Sir, what is this West Philippine Sea?
06:32.6
Where is it and why should we care?
06:35.7
Nag-step back ako, actually,
06:37.8
kung paano ko sasagutin ito sa mga taong walang pake,
06:40.9
walang time, actually.
06:42.7
So, mula noon talagang itong mga studyante na ito
06:45.7
na yung nag-inspiration ko
06:47.0
to do my homework, actually.
06:49.5
Then, after ng brief time ko doon sa first education job ko,
06:54.1
I moved to the AFP.
06:56.5
Specifically, doon sa Office for Strategic Studies and Strategy Management.
07:01.0
O yung tinatawag nilang OSOM.
07:03.0
Actually, that's how we say it there.
07:06.3
So, ito yung sabihin na natin personal staff ni CISA,
07:10.7
Chief of Staff, Armed Forces of the Philippines.
07:13.0
So, I got there noong 2019.
07:16.7
And doon ko na nakilala si Vico, personally.
07:20.3
Pero, actually, before ko pa siya makilala,
07:23.1
medyo nauna-una na kasi siya eh.
07:26.4
So to speak, ni Pareng Nico.
07:29.0
And then, we formally met back in 2019, November,
07:33.7
sa isang track to ASEAN Institute na meeting sa may Clark.
07:39.6
So, doon kami nagkakilala.
07:41.6
And then, I'm also a graduate student ng time na iyon.
07:46.6
And working on my thesis on naval diplomacy
07:50.8
ng Australia, Japan, and India to the Philippines.
07:53.3
So, I'm trying to work on why in the world,
07:56.2
So, I'm trying to work on why in the world,
07:56.4
states are using these things na akala natin dapat hindi na ginagamit
08:02.2
sa international relations.
08:03.7
Pero, lo and behold, states are using militaries to get what they want.
08:09.5
So, sabi ko, mukhang magandang karir ito ah.
08:12.8
At nakakatawa lang kasi, boom, pumasok ako sa PUP as a lecturer.
08:19.2
So, historically speaking, alam naman natin ang kwento ng PUP
08:24.7
when it comes to their sentiment.
08:27.2
Pero, nakakatawa lang kasi, when I introduced yung strategic studies for two years now,
08:34.2
actually, going three years na siya, very receptive yung mga students.
08:37.2
Ah, sir, ganun pala yung paggamit ng military. May tama at may mali.
08:42.2
Exactly. So, I've been helping them to make sense how do you use it.
08:48.2
Kasi sinasabi kong framing lagi, sabihin na natin you disagree with some things that governments do,
08:54.2
but at the same time, you disagree with some things that governments do, but at the same time,
08:56.1
hindi natin may iwasan that militaries are tools of the state.
09:00.1
So, gagamitan ng pera.
09:02.1
They love spouting yung tinatawag nating good governance.
09:05.1
So, sabi ko, dito niya ipasok yung good governance.
09:08.1
How do we allocate our defense budget?
09:12.1
Well, si Justin, maraming masasabi yan later.
09:14.1
Pero, doon ko sila pinaframe.
09:18.1
And they're really convinced na, okay, yung answer, no?
09:20.1
So, aside from teaching, I'm also a resident fellow sa Sanktepan.
09:25.1
So, sa isang think tank, International Development and Security Cooperation since 2021.
09:31.1
And ako yung sabihin na nating strategic studies guy nila sa loob ng IDLC.
09:36.1
And thriving itong think tank ngayon, actually.
09:39.1
With Dr. Chester Cabalza, right?
09:41.1
Oo, tama. Dr. Chester Cabalza, which was, by the way, my former teacher.
09:47.1
Kasi after kong lumabas sa AFP, nasa radar nila pala ako na nagsusulat on the West Philippine Sea issue.
09:54.1
So, he decided na i-recruit ako for this organization.
10:00.1
I'm very happy kasi IDLC and PUP has been my home for years now.
10:05.1
To allow me to speak my thoughts on West Philippine Sea, etc.
10:11.1
Thank you very much, Josh. I was a bit worried that you'll get into the analysis.
10:15.1
Parang, wait lang, may mga...
10:16.1
No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
10:18.1
Relax lang, gentlemen.
10:20.1
The reason we made this podcast is precisely to make sure...
10:22.1
Yung masinsinan, hindi lang mga pakyut, hindi lang yung mga cloud chaser style.
10:29.1
Admittedly, sometimes I had to do that also on Twitter because no choice.
10:33.1
You have to get people's attention so that you do the right thing.
10:36.1
As Socrates said, you have to seduce people into truth.
10:39.1
So, self-admittedly, sometimes we have to be a little bit exaggerated.
10:43.1
But at the end of the day, dito makakaalaman sa podcast kung may alam ka or hindi.
10:47.1
Kasi within one hour, obvious na kung wala ka talagang alam, pangit lang ang ginagawa mo.
10:51.1
So, of course, I'm not going to be presumptuous.
10:53.1
I mean, first of all, just to be clear, this is not the final composition, just in case sabi ng iba.
10:57.1
But puro mga gentlemen, we look forward to this group to expand.
11:00.1
In fact, one of our friends, Don McLean-Gill, is also supposed to join us.
11:05.1
Unfortunately, he's, I think, under the weather right now.
11:08.1
So, we hope he can join us in the future.
11:10.1
This is kind of a mini-movement, right?
11:12.1
A mini-podcast that we believe is part of a broader movement.
11:15.1
So, please don't bash us and say, bat, puro kayo mga lalaki dyan, etc.
11:20.1
We're going to fix that thing.
11:22.1
Sooner than later, hopefully.
11:24.1
Now, going back to this, of course, not to be presumptuous.
11:26.1
I'm Richard Hidarian.
11:27.1
I currently teach at the University of the Philippines Asian Center.
11:30.1
And I used to teach also in LaSalle.
11:32.1
I also used to teach in PUP.
11:34.1
And I think na kasabay kami ni Josh when they asked me to be the professor at chair for geopolitics.
11:40.1
So, I was very happy to do that during pandemic time too.
11:44.1
So, I'm very glad that different universities are coming in.
11:47.1
I also taught at Ateneo de Mandela University.
11:49.1
Now, how did I get into the whole West Philippine Sea issue?
11:51.1
Well, I used to work in the Philippine government, legislator.
11:54.1
I advised at least a senator.
11:56.1
So, I advised also a congressman.
11:58.1
They happen to be smartest people.
11:59.1
I mean, I'm talking about people like Miriam Defensor, Walden Velio.
12:03.1
Pretty big people, right?
12:05.1
I had to deal with back in the day.
12:07.1
And I remember very well, I was in a foreign affairs committee kind of hearing when the whole West Philippine Sea issue and Scarborough came to fore.
12:14.1
And after going through all of that, you know, I never looked back.
12:18.1
I never looked back.
12:19.1
So, for the next years, probably what, 2,000-3,000 articles.
12:23.1
One way or another, I had to do something with South China Sea and the Philippines and a number of books on this.
12:28.1
Anyway, this is not about me.
12:29.1
Looking forward to other...
12:31.1
I just didn't want to be presumptuous.
12:32.1
I just had to introduce myself very quickly.
12:36.1
Now, let's start with the big questions.
12:39.1
I mentioned Socrates a while ago.
12:41.1
We'll go Aristotelian in the next episode.
12:43.1
We'll start tactical operational.
12:45.1
But now, let's talk grand strategy.
12:48.1
Now, since medyo nag-feeling ilustrado of the 21st century tayo, medyo young Turks, let me ask this question, gentlemen.
12:57.1
Maybe I'll start with Justin and then we can go from there.
13:01.1
Do you think this is the moment?
13:03.1
Because remember, Benedict Anderson famously argued that, you know, nations are imagined communities, right?
13:09.1
And the process of imagination is crystallized through common victories and common, you know, tragedies, right?
13:17.1
And usually, if you look at anthropology, schismogenesis, how first nations came about, nations always came about in juxtaposition or contraposition to something else, right?
13:28.1
I can start with the first heroic societies in Turkey versus the Babylonian counterpart.
13:32.1
And we can go on and on with Germany, Prussia versus France.
13:36.1
So, the tendency is that, you know, nationalism and nationhood has a lot to do with questions of war and peace, has a lot to do also with the sense of urgent sense of dealing with the threat from without.
13:46.1
And you may disagree with me, right?
13:49.1
Maybe this is a very UP stance, but my argument always has been that one of the problems with us in the Philippines is that we have been in the shadow of a superpower for quite some time.
13:59.1
In fact, you know, the institutions of the Philippines are very much, you know, patterned after America.
14:04.1
In fact, 19th century America, late 19th century America, and the Philippine Constitution, jurisprudence.
14:11.1
Yes, there was 300 years of Spain, European power.
14:16.1
But in many ways, I would argue that we kind of outsource our external security exigencies and needs to the United States throughout the Cold War period and throughout the 20th century, to be honest, even when we gained our supposed formal independence.
14:31.1
So, my way of looking at it, and please go ahead and disagree with me, is that this West Philippine issue, this is the glue that is bringing us, the Filipino people, together.
14:41.1
In fact, yung pagiging Filipino natin, yung pagiging excited natin, has a lot to do with this.
14:45.1
Has a lot to do with how we are pushing back and resisting the bullying that is happening in the West Philippine Sea.
14:51.1
And the reason I say this is because, you know, a lot of us have relatives in the United States.
14:56.1
A lot of us relatives who actually are in the American Armed Forces.
14:59.1
And I heard that there are many Pinoys, second-generation Pinoys, who are more than happy to be stationed in the Philippines under ETCA, etc.
15:07.1
Because they want to fight for their motherland, even if they're Americans, second-generation Philippine Americans.
15:12.1
So, for me, I think something bigger is happening.
15:15.1
This is not just a territorial dispute, as important as it is.
15:17.1
This is not just a maritime issue.
15:19.1
This is an existential national identity issue.
15:22.1
This is like what Rizal and Ilustrados were facing in the late 19th century.
15:27.1
This emerging sense of what it is to be a Filipino.
15:30.1
Am I exaggerating this? Am I reading too much into this?
15:33.1
Justin, what is your take on this?
15:36.1
This national consciousness, nationalism aspect to this?
15:40.1
No, I fully agree with you.
15:42.1
I think yung juncture ngayon is very important.
15:44.1
I think yung juncture ngayon is very important.
15:45.1
Because we're seeing the birth of historical consciousness in the Philippines when it comes to our geopolitical interests.
15:52.1
In the past, of course, we've had colonial subjugation, of course.
15:57.1
But really, we were focused on internal security threats after that.
16:01.1
So, even after independence from America in 1946, formally.
16:06.1
After that, we had the Hukbal Hap rebellion.
16:09.1
So, it's really very inward-looking, right?
16:11.1
But right now, we are being defined by an external threat.
16:14.1
In much of the same way that other Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia or Malaysia have been defined by an external threat at the moment of the birth of their country.
16:25.1
So, right now, I think what we're seeing is yung rejuvenation of that sense, pride of place nga.
16:31.1
Ika nga, of where the Philippines stands.
16:33.1
That a lot of countries right now, they talk about de-risking from geopolitics and, of course, de-conflicting.
16:41.1
But the Philippine case is opposite.
16:43.1
Because we are right at the center of the geopolitical conflicts between the US and China, between ASEAN and China, and between our own geopolitical conflicts with China.
16:53.1
So, even if some of us aren't interested in geopolitics, geopolitics is certainly interested in the Philippines.
17:03.1
So, I think going forward, I think this is a very important period for the Philippines.
17:08.1
Right now, we are having conversations about how to deal with this.
17:12.1
How to deal with the threat that is China.
17:14.1
I think everybody can understand the threat that is China.
17:17.1
But what is the operational response to China?
17:20.1
So, those are the things we're trying to work out right now.
17:22.1
Whether it's a policy of trying to have good relations with China, if that is enough to make them stop bullying in the West Philippine Sea.
17:30.1
Or whether we need to have more of a muscular foreign policy, trying to bring in, for example, more concrete military assets, trying to enlist foreign support in the theater of operations, and so forth.
17:42.1
So, our generation specifically is grappling with these questions.
17:46.1
And right now, of course, the AFP is also grappling with this question as it shifts its focus from internal security.
17:53.1
This year, the AFP declared that it now has a strategic victory of the Communist Party of the Philippines.
17:59.1
So, the internal security threat, which many have known for a long time, isn't really the major security issue in the country anymore.
18:07.1
So, it's really the external security threat.
18:09.1
So, right now, all the different sectors.
18:11.1
Whether that's civil society, the manong and manang in the street, they know what the threat from China is.
18:17.1
Our own AFP right now, medyo may institutional soul-searching na nagaganap.
18:22.1
How do you reconfigure your force structure to address an external security problem, which they haven't done historically since World War II?
18:31.1
So, all of these things, yan ang nangyari sa Pilipinas ngayon.
18:35.1
We are witnessing, of course, the rejuvenation of our historical consciousness.
18:40.1
But at the same time, there are different interpretations of how we imagine this national community.
18:46.1
Thank you very much for that, Justin.
18:48.1
Mico, I mean, is this the rebirth of a nation?
18:51.1
I won't say birth of a nation. That goes to Rizal's era.
18:54.1
But is this the rebirth of a nation?
18:56.1
Like the Philippines rediscovering itself, its place of pride, its sense of national resilience and strength?
19:02.1
Mico, how do you see that?
19:03.1
I mean, of course, you're also now in the Armed Forces of the Philippines.
19:05.1
How do you see this soul-searching process as a Filipino and also a member of the Armed Forces of the Philippines?
19:10.1
Thank you, sir, for that question.
19:13.1
Again, if I may just note, the views expressed are mine alone.
19:18.1
And they not necessarily reflect the views of my organization.
19:22.1
But going back to your question, sir, I completely agree with you and Justin.
19:26.1
That we are indeed living in very interesting times.
19:31.1
And the public, there's need to support this argument because there is public opinion polls.
19:39.1
That they're strongly against China.
19:41.1
Of course, there are opposition within the country.
19:44.1
A few of them, although with very deep pockets.
19:47.1
Maybe we could discuss that later.
19:49.1
But yeah, I agree that there is this growing consciousness among our public and our place in the world.
20:00.1
And you could see that actually in the official publications of our government.
20:04.1
During the Duterte administration, again, we could discuss this further.
20:08.1
Although the president was saying one thing, his national security establishment was actually saying another thing.
20:16.1
In the national security strategy and national security policy of the Duterte administration,
20:22.1
it explicitly articulated how the security establishment viewed the country.
20:31.1
This emphasis on this archipelagic and maritime configuration of our country.
20:36.1
And how it attracted major foreign powers.
20:40.1
That kind of language was not actually seen in previous administrations.
20:48.1
Because as you said, sir, ang focus talaga naman talaga nun ay yung internal security natin.
20:54.1
Justin was explaining it, not me.
20:57.1
I mentioned it a while ago na yung focus nalang before was internal security.
21:01.1
But now, even among the general public,
21:06.1
talagang may clamor for us to beef up our defense capabilities
21:11.1
as well as to strengthen our armed forces capabilities.
21:14.1
At saka yung ano talaga eh, it's very palpable sa mga,
21:20.1
even the civil society movement, yung organization Justin,
21:23.1
even the late national security advisor, Oil Goles,
21:27.1
and together with Secretary Alunan, has their own grouping.
21:32.1
So it's really very palpable.
21:34.1
And because of this external threat, this idea of yung Filipino consciousness.
21:41.1
And maybe another point to add here is that,
21:44.1
siguro lalo na dun sa generation natin, those of us here in this podcast.
21:49.1
Just to be clear, we're all millennials here, right?
21:52.1
Just to be clear.
21:53.1
I think Justin is, if I'm not mistaken, the youngest of the crew.
21:57.1
JNZ ka? Hindi ka naman JNZ, Justin, no?
21:59.1
No, technically still millennial.
22:01.1
Okay, good, good, good.
22:04.1
I'm the oldest generation, siya.
22:08.1
Ain't that, ano, maganda yung framing ko.
22:12.1
Yeah, oldest generation, siya.
22:15.1
Kasi yung generation natin, we are, yun nga, going back dun sa 2012,
22:21.1
which I think is when most of us,
22:25.1
not just tayong apat but also the general public talaga,
22:29.1
nagkaroon ng consciousness about this South China Sea issue.
22:32.1
Kasi before ano siya eh.
22:33.1
Episodic siya eh.
22:34.1
Ngayon kasi it's almost on a daily basis may nangyayari sa South China Sea.
22:40.1
But since then talagang our generation lives in a period
22:46.1
wherein the international environment is undergoing through a transition.
22:54.1
The last time it went through such a transition was in the late 80s to the early 90s,
22:59.1
yung end of the Cold War.
23:01.1
Ito yung from one border to the next,
23:04.1
that which is in itself unique.
23:09.1
Kasi that transition was relatively peaceful.
23:12.1
Kasi transitions in world borders are usually violent.
23:15.1
As in the book of Graham Madison proved.
23:18.1
Yung civilist trap.
23:21.1
But yung generation natin ngayon is,
23:26.1
it's unfolding in a very isolated.
23:31.1
different developments around the world.
23:33.1
Not to mention yung war in Ukraine and so on.
23:39.1
pinag-usapan namin pa ng mga classmates going forward.
23:41.1
Parang kasarap maging political science student now.
23:45.1
compared maybe in the late 90s or the early 2000s.
23:50.1
lalo na kung IR yung major mo,
23:52.1
ang daming case studies.
23:56.1
forums like this could really help.
23:58.1
But going back to your question, sir,
24:01.1
I completely agree.
24:05.1
growing consciousness.
24:10.1
pattern talaga yun.
24:13.1
with all due respect,
24:17.1
yung Singapore was worn out because of this violation.
24:32.1
how should I put it?
24:38.1
we're all in our 30s or late 20s,
24:39.1
maybe in the case of Justin,
24:42.1
this is also the era of rise of China.
24:44.1
Before we were born,
24:47.1
kind of a dirt poor,
24:48.1
giant North Korea.
24:50.1
just as we grew up,
24:51.1
China grew into this immensely powerful,
24:54.1
very technologically sophisticated country.
24:58.1
we had an event in
25:02.1
everyone was using QR code.
25:03.1
All these were using QR code.
25:05.1
We were the only youths with cash
25:06.1
going to the shops,
25:07.1
and they were looking at us
25:08.1
as if we were like,
25:11.1
or something like that.
25:15.1
dun ko lang nakita,
25:16.1
this is different.
25:18.1
this China is gonna be a force to reckon with.
25:21.1
you're gonna see also a lot of Chinese cars,
25:22.1
including EV cars by China.
25:23.1
The BYDs I'm seeing
25:25.1
really nice among others.
25:27.1
that also coincided with that.
25:30.1
we're on the front line
25:31.1
of the not so good side
25:32.1
of this new superpower.
25:34.1
We are the front line nation.
25:36.1
I don't wanna steal it away from Taiwan.
25:37.1
The situation of Taiwan
25:38.1
is much more stark than us.
25:41.1
we're kinda there.
25:44.1
how do you see this
25:45.1
in terms of a critical juncture?
25:47.1
do you also think that
25:48.1
this is also potentially
25:49.1
the birth of a whole
25:50.1
epistemic community?
25:51.1
Of a whole series of
25:52.1
strategic thinkers in the Philippines
25:53.1
with a focus on West Philippines?
25:54.1
I don't think we had that before.
25:57.1
experts like that?
26:12.1
write our narratives,
26:14.1
Our historiography
26:15.1
has been focusing on
26:17.1
the consolidation
26:23.1
in the late 1800s.
26:28.1
the West Philippine Sea,
26:31.1
we have just named it
26:38.1
it's good to think
26:45.1
If you know what I mean.
26:51.1
that we named this
26:52.1
as West Philippine Sea
26:53.1
connotes the idea
27:03.1
there would be spaces.
27:06.1
would have meaning
27:13.1
a very good episode
27:15.1
historiographical
27:21.1
we have to revisit
27:22.1
our pages of history
27:28.1
if we look at it,
29:50.1
Right. That's absolutely correct. I mean, Josh, in fact, one of the lectures I gave in PUP when I was a professor chair was the comparison between Aguinaldo, balancing between Spain and rising America or declining Spain, and then later on, of course, to the Commonwealth era, we're talking about Manuel Quezon trying to balance between Imperial Japan, rising Imperial Japan, and kind of America withdrawing, and then now what's happening.
30:14.9
And my argument is, how I wish our leaders now are a little bit less of Aguinaldo when it comes to geopolitics, a little bit more of Manuel Quezon, right? Speaking of which, maybe I can, this is the last part for this episode, just to get the ball rolling. How does Duterte go down in history? Because just to be clear about this, I think I made a lot of enemies early on during the Duterte era when I said, well, I mean, maybe him saying we shouldn't rely on the US and we should diversify relations isn't the worst thing.
30:44.9
in the world. It's just that, of course, later on how it was executed is another question. I felt he raised good strategic questions. In the same way, I also have a lot of disagreements with Trump, but I think Trump also raised some good questions about, hey, what is this networks of alliances we have? Is this serving our national interest? Is this really the way forward, right? So I have big questions with populism. I've written books about what's wrong with them. But I always agree, there's one thing that makes populists very popular, at least makes them win, is they raise good questions. They frame the issues pretty effectively.
31:14.8
Now, so definitely, as Justin said, we're not here to bash people, personally speaking. But Justin, for the last part of this episode, because we're talking about the rebirth of a nation, what is the historical role? I mean, if you were a historian 50 years from now, how are you going to write about the role of Duterte? Because he was quite a shock to Philippine foreign policy. And whether it's a good shock or not, it's something we can debate. But how do you see that, Justin?
31:39.1
Naka-mute kayo ito, Justin.
31:42.2
I think this is quite a controversial opinion.
31:44.8
But I would actually think that Duterte was a phase that the Philippines had to go through, right?
31:50.8
Our foreign policy has never been so different under his administration compared to all other previous presidents.
31:57.2
And I think it actually benefited the country to actually try out a foreign policy and still see that despite us trying to better relations with China, the threats posed by China remained the same or constant, such as yung maritime incursions nila, not just in the West Philippines,
32:14.8
but also in the Benham, Philippine rice, Benham rice, in the northeast of the Philippines.
32:20.8
And really, the bottom line is that happens because by virtue of China's size.
32:25.2
So regardless of its intentions, the nature of its scale, sabi nga ni Professor, the late Professor Aileen Baviera, it is going to be threatening to the Philippines regardless of its intentions, because it just has a huge military presence in the region.
32:39.7
It's trying to push out into the Pacific Ocean.
32:44.8
You know, whether we like it or not, we have to respond to that.
32:47.7
So I think the Duterte administration can be viewed in that sense na it was a phase we had to go through to realize that we actually needed to stick to the basics of our foreign policy.
32:59.4
Kasi during the Aquino administration, some people were...
33:02.8
That was the question.
33:03.9
Why are we so reliant on the US?
33:06.5
Why are we undertaking lawfare under international law to bring China to court when, you know, it's at the end of the day, it's guns.
33:14.8
Versus pieces of paper, right?
33:17.5
And Duterte asked those important questions, as you said.
33:21.0
And fortunately for us, we did realize that, you know, there is wisdom in our alliance with the United States.
33:28.0
Even if, yes, things aren't going to go back to the same as before, the Philippines right now is trying to have a more equal partnership with the United States.
33:37.9
Even if we fall short in practice, to try to have some more self-respect for ourselves.
33:43.5
And of course, I think...
33:44.6
The US right now is reciprocating that.
33:47.3
So I think when we look back at the Duterte years, I think it's going to be a critical juncture wherein we tried something else and, you know,
33:56.6
and we realized that hindi tayo pwedeng mag-try ng bago just for the sake na magkaroon ng something new, right?
34:04.7
To try something new for its own sake.
34:06.4
We cannot have that.
34:07.0
And ultimately, we're going to look back into this period as saying na we need to have a consistent and coherent...
34:14.6
foreign policy across administrations.
34:17.2
We cannot have pendulum swings na yung from Aquino to Duterte, radically different.
34:22.3
And in a way, it's a lesson for future presidents as well to respect continuity in foreign policy.
34:27.9
Because foreign policy has to be grounded on territorial integrity, national sovereignty.
34:33.3
And these things should be constant across administrations.
34:35.6
So yes, they can tinker with policy, how they will want to relate to China and so forth.
34:42.3
But they cannot do it in a way that undermines...
34:45.3
the core military and defense interests of the Philippines.
34:48.8
And I think that's a lesson learned for all.
34:54.9
Maybe I'll go Josh first because Mico is still in the government.
34:58.8
Love is sweeter the second time?
35:01.2
Was that what Duterte was all about?
35:03.2
To make us realize the value of our alliances?
35:05.8
What's going on there?
35:07.4
If you look at the story kasi ng Philippine strategic development natin,
35:14.6
you have to look at why did Duterte do that.
35:20.5
Aquino, Duterte, and then what we have right now.
35:23.8
Ang argument ko kasi dyan when I wrote a book chapter on this one is that
35:27.9
ang ginagawa ni Duterte is by and large a consequence or so-called strategic effect
35:36.9
na ginawa ni President Aquino at that time.
35:40.9
So I argued that there are four ways.
35:44.6
Ginawa si President Aquino, Duterte, in order to act on China's rise.
35:50.8
Military modernization, strategic partnerships with Australia and Japan,
35:55.6
and then the lawfare with the arbitration ruling,
35:58.4
and then the alliance with the EDCA.
36:01.4
All of these things, pagpapasok ka doon sa isang strategic effect,
36:07.9
ito yung ina-act on na trabaho ni President Duterte.
36:12.0
Now, nandito tayo sa post-Duterte.
36:14.6
Basically, ang lumalabas ngayon is that whatever Marcos does is by and large
36:20.8
a consequence kung ano man ang mga naging maganda at hindi magandang kwento
36:25.9
na nakita natin during Duterte's time.
36:28.2
And indeed, I would second what Justin mentioned na we had to go through that phase.
36:34.0
Just to mention, just to point out the fact that we tried.
36:38.7
Okay, perhaps Aquino, Duterte was wrong.
36:41.7
Let's try the other side.
36:43.3
Pero hindi nga nag-work.
36:44.6
This, if anything, is the current, itong current na phase natin is a trying moment for us.
36:52.7
Okay, kung ayaw natin ng too much of this, too much of that, perhaps let's try this one.
36:58.6
And yun nga yung sinasabi ko na argument ko for many times sa iba't ibang pieces ko na
37:05.1
perhaps let's forget Duterte from now on, let's focus on what Marcos Jr.'s government
37:11.9
in terms of foreign policy.
37:14.6
Sa pano niya i-continue lawfare and also yung pag-put forward ng defense posture natin.
37:21.4
Kasi, ano man ang gagawin niya will generate a strategic effect towards the next president.
37:28.1
At ano man ang mga gagawin niya will just produce another strategic effect.
37:31.8
And it's an interesting thing for scholars, especially historians, to talk about regarding
37:36.8
the unfolding of our Philippine history.
37:39.6
Kasi kung titignan natin, napakabata pa natin.
37:44.6
Laging sinasabi yan ng isang professor na talagang, back in UP, sinasabi niya,
37:54.1
bakit mo kinukumpara itong Pilipinas sa ibang bansa?
37:59.4
Maraming pang kakaining bigas.
38:02.8
Singapore is younger than us.
38:04.2
United Arab Emirates is younger than us.
38:08.8
I get your point.
38:10.3
But let's not give ourselves too much excuse.
38:11.9
It just so happened.
38:13.1
It just so happened that we went.
38:14.6
We went through a lot in these things.
38:16.6
So ako naman, cautiously optimistic ako on how we can unfold these things.
38:21.4
Kasi perhaps, siguro mas magandang i-judge na lang natin ito.
38:25.8
Siguro at the end of this century, kasalanan na ng generation and generation and generation.
38:32.4
Perhaps may kinalaman tayo doon.
38:34.3
Kung ano man ang gagawin natin, we can do podcasts.
38:38.3
Pero kung wala nga ang impact, kawawa yung next generation.
38:44.0
And a heavy commitment itong ginagawin natin actually.
38:48.9
Well, by the end of the century, probably an AI version of us is going to pull this off.
38:52.9
Let's just make as many versions of ourselves online so that ma-AI tayo by 2099 or 199.
39:02.7
Mico, I want to, okay, just to play the devil's advocate here, or rather angel's advocate,
39:09.0
I don't know, whatever.
39:09.6
My sense is, I see the attraction of a telelogist.
39:14.0
Telelogical, almost a Catholic argument na we had to be punished so that we realize, you know, this and that.
39:19.6
But ang point ko is, I have two things with that.
39:22.5
First is the argument of path dependency.
39:25.1
Many of the things that Marco Jr. is doing right now is because he just has to correct the mess that was created under the previous administration.
39:30.4
So that's one argument I have against a more teleological way of putting it.
39:34.4
The second one, parang tumakas yata si Mico.
39:39.9
Wait lang, di ba ako tapos, Mico?
39:41.5
Wag kang tumakas.
39:42.9
First is, I have a...
39:43.9
I have an issue with teleological argument, with all due respect to that point.
39:46.8
Because in fairness, Justin, you're not the first to make it.
39:48.8
But, you know, and then mahirap to make that argument on EJK, right?
39:53.5
I don't think we have to have 20,000 people killed potentially for us to learn the value of human rights.
39:59.1
It's easy to say that if not, you're not a part of the victims, right?
40:02.4
But the second one is, and this is, this I believe is more controversial.
40:06.1
Because I think, Justin, your point is more, it's more of a, it consoles the argument that, you know, it's unfortunate,
40:12.7
but we're going to learn from it.
40:14.1
Medyo may pagka-coach Chotre, yes, learning experience.
40:17.9
Magbuban na tayo, baka makamag-gold.
40:20.9
No, my second argument is, I think Duterte had good strategy,
40:27.1
pero yung implementation went wrong somewhere because he just didn't have what it took.
40:31.4
So parang he had a good idea of the big picture, parang he's a good architect but horrible engineer.
40:36.6
Do you get what I'm saying?
40:37.5
Like, nung sinabi sa kanya, anong itsura ng bahay na gusto mo, medyo matini yung ginawa niya, di ba?
40:41.2
And then, nung i-execute na yung mga chipang na ginamit ng mga steel, chipang na paint, chipang na ano,
40:49.2
yung mga hinari niya, mga problematic people, and then in the middle, he's cutting deals.
40:53.7
So for me, I think it's like a good script potentially that went really wrong.
40:59.5
So I think that's my reading, which I think is not something much discussed.
41:04.0
So I actually, I'm very Hegelian, negation of negation.
41:07.5
I don't buy any side of the argument.
41:08.9
My argument is that there was something inherently good.
41:12.0
But it just went wrong because Duterte just didn't have what it took.
41:15.4
He didn't have the sophistication.
41:17.6
And then second, ang sabog.
41:19.6
And yeah, and let's be honest, he's the first guy to deal with China the way he did.
41:24.3
So medyo uncharted territories din yan.
41:26.6
So you get what I'm saying?
41:27.6
It's a very nuanced take.
41:29.2
It's totally different from the usual takes on Duterte.
41:31.6
Ikaw, Mico, what do you think about that?
41:32.9
Without jeopardizing your career.
41:34.6
Tumatakas ka na yung first question ko palang nag-off na.
41:37.4
Alam mo yung mga in-interview tapos,
41:39.4
Hello, hello, I cannot hear you.
41:41.2
Yung sagutin, yung mga analyst sa Moscow.
41:43.6
Like, what do you think about Putin?
41:44.8
He's gonna, hello, hello, I cannot hear you.
41:48.2
Alam mo, munti ka na nag-gayami ko, ha?
41:50.9
Alam mo, Richard, meron akong banat yan.
41:53.6
May mention mo na terrible architect siya.
41:58.0
Ang tanong kasi, bakit kasi tawag natin cheap architect of foreign policy?
42:01.3
Good architect, terrible engineer.
42:03.6
Parang hindi siya makilig na civil engineer.
42:05.6
Like, yung execution ay sobrang pangit kasi cheap ang yung ginamit.
42:09.2
Parang ganda nung architecture.
42:11.2
Diversified relations, independent foreign policy, non-traditional.
42:14.6
I have nothing against it because it gives us more room for maneuver.
42:18.6
In fact, if you hear Lee Kuan Yew and then you hear Duterte,
42:22.2
I mean, the more coherent version,
42:24.3
they were not too different.
42:25.2
Except Lee Kuan Yew was both a good architect and a good engineer.
42:28.5
Digo nga at best was a good architect.
42:30.6
Meaning, big questions.
42:32.1
But ang pangit sa blay nung execution.
42:34.2
I'm just saying, ha?
42:36.0
And many factors came in because Obama criticized his team on human rights,
42:39.9
Duterte trying to help him.
42:41.2
You know what I'm saying?
42:41.8
Like, so I don't see it in teleological terms.
42:44.2
I just see it as a script that went off,
42:47.1
sobrang off script, na sobrang wrong.
42:49.3
And that's why I'd rather not look at it teleologically,
42:53.1
although teleology helps me to psychologically appreciate it.
42:56.7
That's where I see the value of what Justin was saying.
43:02.6
Siguro, with respect to President Duterte himself,
43:06.9
the jury is still out, I think.
43:11.2
fully appreciate, for lack of a better term,
43:15.5
what he did during his six years in office.
43:18.1
I mean, the likes of President Truman, President Carter in the U.S.,
43:24.0
it took a number of decades before the public realized
43:29.4
that the decisions that they made in office were right.
43:32.3
So again, with respect to Duterte, I think the jury is still out.
43:35.2
But if I may focus on the Duterte administration as a whole,
43:41.2
siguro I'll jump off mula dun sa sinabi ni Josh.
43:44.3
Yung kasi those of us who studied and teach Philippine foreign relations,
43:50.2
Philippine foreign policy,
43:51.9
we always, at some point in our lecture,
43:54.9
nabanggit natin yun eh,
43:56.3
na the president is the chief architect of foreign policy.
44:00.1
Now, going back to your question, Prof. Richard,
44:02.7
of how Duterte, or in this case,
44:05.0
the Duterte administration as a whole will be viewed,
44:07.9
allow me to wear my IR,
44:12.0
Siguro what the Duterte administration showed us
44:18.1
is, yes, in theory, the president is the chief architect of foreign policy,
44:24.9
but in reality, what the Duterte administration showed us
44:28.8
is the role of the different institutions
44:31.5
within and outside government in shaping foreign policy.
44:35.4
I think President Duterte came into office,
44:40.1
with a, as you said,
44:43.3
he may have been a good architect.
44:46.9
He has his design from the get-go,
44:49.4
his speech in China,
44:50.9
when he said he's aligning the Philippines
44:52.8
with the ideological flow of China and Russia.
44:55.8
Essentially, he did things that,
45:02.2
were inconceivable,
45:04.3
like ending Balikatan.
45:08.0
Abrogating the VFK.
45:10.1
there were even thoughts of pulling out of EDGA
45:12.7
at some point during his administration.
45:16.0
what prevented all of those from actually coming into fruition
45:19.6
was the role of the different agencies.
45:23.0
So, dito nga yung papasok
45:26.1
yung bureaucratic politics approach
45:29.2
ni Graham Allison in foreign policy.
45:31.6
So, I think itong the Duterte administration
45:34.1
is a case study of that.
45:37.5
Not just institutions,
45:39.8
the armed forces nung,
45:42.7
I'll not go into details,
45:44.2
but definitely the armed forces had a role
45:47.3
in persuading the administration
45:54.0
from keeping the pillars
45:58.7
of the Philippines-US alliance intact.
46:01.7
yung role din ng media.
46:04.7
The media and the think tanks as well.
46:06.8
Let's not underestimate din yung role ng think tanks.
46:09.8
When it comes to, you know,
46:11.5
shaping the debate,
46:13.5
when it comes to our foreign relations.
46:15.6
I think, I forgot to mention this a while ago,
46:18.3
si Prof. Richard Ata,
46:19.4
yung the rise of epistemic communities,
46:21.2
napaka-importante nun.
46:22.6
Looking back now,
46:24.5
Duterte has been out of office
46:25.8
a little more than a year,
46:29.1
when he stepped down.
46:31.0
nakikita natin yung ngayon.
46:35.3
while Duterte, the man,
46:36.7
the former president,
46:39.1
yung his thinking
46:41.4
will be studied by historians
46:43.9
for many years to come.
46:46.3
as one who specializes in IR,
46:50.5
like all of us here,
46:52.9
one of the things na dun siya matatandaan.
46:55.9
At least yung administration niya.
46:57.5
Yung the role of the different institutions
46:59.5
when it comes to foreign relations.
47:03.1
yung previous administrations,
47:08.0
there's consistency
47:14.3
from President Quezon onwards.
47:17.5
There may be differences
47:22.3
approach was the same.
47:28.4
yung kay Duterte administration,
47:30.3
he attacked the very pillars
47:32.5
of our alliance with the US.
47:39.2
tapped was the different institutions.
47:45.2
the national security establishment,
47:46.6
and let's not also underestimate
47:47.9
yung role of the legislature.
47:50.9
when Duterte had a spat
47:53.5
with then-ambassador Philip Goldberg
47:59.1
the human rights issues and so on,
48:01.0
he was not actually given,
48:03.0
if I'm not mistaken,
48:03.8
He gave you an award
48:04.6
ng Philippine Congress.
48:06.8
It's the Congress,
48:07.7
not the President.
48:09.1
Kasi ideally it's the President
48:10.9
who gives the award.
48:12.5
the Senate stepped in
48:19.2
the then-ambassador
48:24.8
the courtesy and so on
48:28.0
may role din yung
48:31.7
yung role of the national security establishment
48:33.5
and the media and the think tank.
48:36.3
Duterte administration,
48:39.1
wearing my IR hat here,
48:40.8
would at the very least
48:43.2
na-highlight yung role eh
48:44.4
ng different institutions.
48:45.4
Which is very good, no?
48:50.7
we are not a monolith.
48:52.7
Hindi monolith yung ating
48:53.9
foreign policy establishment.
48:56.3
ng Duterte administration yun.
48:58.3
Yung role ng different institutions.
49:01.8
for long better term,
49:04.4
when it comes to foreign policy.
49:07.0
we taught our students,
49:10.0
very legalistic yung approach.
49:11.8
Chief architect of foreign policy.
49:15.0
He's the commander chief
49:15.9
of the armed forces.
49:20.7
how the interplay
49:22.9
of the different organizations
49:24.5
within and outside government
49:26.9
Philippine foreign policy.
49:33.5
he abrogated his,
49:39.1
abrogated his decision
49:44.3
towards the end of his,
49:46.5
of his administration.
49:48.3
So, nakita natin yung,
49:52.3
of the different forces.
49:53.3
It was a contested foreign policy, right?
49:55.7
I put it that way.
49:56.8
I put it as a contested foreign policy,
50:02.1
and the steady state, right?
50:04.3
Like, definitely,
50:05.2
all of those elements were there.
50:06.3
Again, for those who covered
50:07.5
Trump administration,
50:08.7
or even Modi in India,
50:11.6
they have their version of this,
50:12.8
even in Turkey, for instance,
50:14.7
So, this is quite
50:17.0
in populist-captured democracies, right?
50:20.3
Ibang usapan na si Putin.
50:21.7
I mean, good luck opposing the guy
50:23.0
and staying alive
50:23.7
and not falling off the
50:25.1
third floor or tenth floor, right?
50:27.2
I really appreciate that.
50:28.6
This is, this is really good.
50:29.6
So, I think we can end this episode on this.
50:31.9
Mukhang madal-dal tayong lahat.
50:33.1
Nahirapan tayo sa 20 minutes pala.
50:35.0
But I think this sets a tone
50:36.4
what we're saying here is that
50:38.0
the West Philippines,
50:38.7
as important as it is,
50:41.4
it has triggered something bigger,
50:43.3
which is the rediscovery
50:45.2
to be a Filipino.
50:46.3
It's kind of a birth of a nation
50:47.7
on multiple levels,
50:49.0
including birth of a steady state.
50:51.2
We saw who are the real patriots.
50:53.3
We saw who are not the real patriots
50:55.1
who are pretending to be patriots.
50:58.2
Nalaman natin eh.
51:00.3
who are really trapos
51:01.4
and who are medyo trapo
51:02.9
pero actually may patriotism din
51:05.3
So, I think very revealing
51:07.0
yung six years of Duterte.
51:08.7
the most important thing,
51:09.6
I think especially Miko
51:10.3
was emphasizing that
51:11.4
and I think Justin and Joshua
51:13.2
having worked in the government
51:14.5
is that you have to separate
51:16.7
Duterte administration.
51:18.0
The two are not necessarily the same.
51:19.8
And I think one of the most
51:20.6
fascinating aspect
51:21.6
of the Duterte era,
51:22.6
which you don't see in Trump
51:25.9
I've studied is this.
51:27.3
He kept Lorenzana
51:28.6
in position of power
51:30.2
for quite some time
51:31.7
very independent-minded people
51:41.3
Who on many occasions
51:42.4
were saying the complete opposite
51:44.7
and not only got away with it,
51:47.2
they kind of even were,
51:48.6
were allowed to play
51:49.6
their heroic games, no?
51:51.9
So, this I think makes Duterte
51:53.5
a very exceptional populist
51:55.0
because in all other cases
51:57.3
you go against the man,
52:00.5
Mattis had to go in the US.
52:02.9
Erdogan fired so many central bankers
52:05.3
and finance ministers
52:06.2
who didn't go his way.
52:08.5
how many people he fired
52:09.4
throughout his short
52:10.6
four years in office.
52:13.3
quite a unique case, no?
52:14.5
That makes him interesting
52:15.8
in historical comparative terms.
52:18.0
Thank you so much, gentlemen,
52:19.1
for that fascinating
52:21.3
Let's just call it
52:21.9
Rebirth of a Nation,
52:23.3
the West Philippine Sea.
52:25.5
And next episode,
52:26.6
let's discuss other
52:28.6
the Marcos Jr. administration.
52:31.9
The bad, the good,
52:33.7
the very, very good.
52:35.2
Kasi nasa government,
52:39.2
the good, the bad, and ugly.
52:41.0
Sige, ako nalang bahala
52:42.9
Thank you very much
52:43.5
and that, gentlemen.
